BNP Paribas Final Tips: Murray can win in three

Events / Ben Caudell / 22 March 2009 / Leave a Comment

Andy Murray must serve at his best and absorb everything his Spanish opponent throws at him if he is to defeat Rafael Nadal in the BNP Paribas Open Final, says Ben Caudell.

Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray will battle it out for the BNP Paribas Open title tonight, a showdown that will set many a tongues wagging.

The winner will take home $605,000 and 1000 ranking points. For Murray this would push him even closer to ousting Novak Djokovic from the world number three spot and set him hot on the heals at Roger Federer number two. If Nadal wins, he will simply cement his spot as number one for at least another six months, he will be over 4500 points ahead of the Swiss and with the clay court season approaching I can see the Spaniard gaining an even bigger lead over the Fed express...

It was business as usual for number one seed Rafael Nadal in yesterday's match-up with home favourite Andy Roddick. The Spaniard set about his work by breaking A-Rod's service as early as the seventh game of the opening set, Roddick failed to take his chances early on and had points to break when 0-40 on Nadal's serve. Unfortunately for the American, Nadal awoke, and just the presence of the left hander on the other side of the court was enough to give Andy the jitters. The second set was a closer affair with both players breaking serve but it was the world number one who eventually came out on top winning 6-4 7-6.

Andy Murray once again got the better of Roger Federer. He now has a 6-2 record against the Swiss and has won the last four matches since Federer's infamous US Open win. Murray's ability to soak up the attacking play of Federer frustrated the Swiss into making far too many unforced errors. Strangely as the match was poised, Murray took a painful tumble in the fourth game of the decisive set, but brushed himself down and won the next 14 out of 17 points to take an insurmountable 5-1 lead. He duly served out the win on his fifth match point.

Final Selections

Vera Zvonareva (RUS) v Ana Ivanovic (SRB)

These two have played each other seven times with Ana Ivanovic 4-3 up in their head-to-head. The last outing resulted in a three set win for Vera Zvonareva at last year's Doha tournament, although I wouldn't read too much into that because Ana was suffering from an illness.

Ivanovic has been less than impressive in the lead-up to this year's BNP Paribas Open but last year the reigning champion used this tournament to kick-start her season, going on to win the French Open and enjoying a 12 week stint as world number one. She has said that she now feels a lot more confident in her overall game, being more aggressive, coming forward more and approaching the net often. This wont be an easy win but if she does succeed we can expect to see a reformed character, and a player who will be gunning for the world's top spot once again.

Selection:

Back Ana Ivanovic to win match @ [2.08]
Back Ana Ivanovic 2-1 @ [5.5] - small bet

Rafael Nadal (SPA) v Andy Murray (GB)

This is a battle between the two best defensive counter punchers in the game. Nadal has a 5-2 lead in their head-to-head, however Murray has won their last two matches, the most notable was a four set win at last years US Open semi-final. If Murray serves at his best, and somehow nullifies the Spaniard's dangerous forehand and backhand winners by absorbing what Nadal throws at him, then I think Murray will go on to win this in three.

Selection:

Back Andy Murray 2-1 @ [5.0]