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Usual suspects to challenge for Davis Cup glory

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"Magical" Matthew Walton relies on his faithful stats to tell us why you won't find many surprises when the Davis Cup is handed out this year

Although there are 16 nations in with a chance of winning this year's Davis Cup, perceived wisdom would say that many of these countries have little, or no, realistic hope of success.

This statement is made irrespective of the way in which the draw has paired the nations together (as you'll see below) but due to several recurring trends and a couple of key statistics which have been identified in previous campaigns.

Before we get onto these topics, let's begin by sorting the wheat from the chaff as the 16 nations are made up of two easily identifiable groups - the live runners and the also rans.

Starting with the also-rans, Great Britain have won the event no fewer than 9 times but the last of these came when Fred Perry was in short pants (back in 1936 to be precise). Even with Andy Murray they will struggle to do so again anytime soon.

So, draw a line through Great Britain and it pays to be similarly sceptical of two other former winners as the Czech Republic's only win came in 1980 and Germany recorded the last of their 3 wins as long ago as 1993 - neither team has the depth of quality required to progress to the latter stages.

Of the other 13 nations the likes of Belgium, Israel, Korea, Peru, Romania and Austria have never won the Davis Cup. And, to be frank, it would take some leap of faith to see any of them making it very far in this year's renewal - even prices up to (250.00) on Betfair aren't tempting enough!

That leaves the usual suspects of Russia, Sweden, Spain, France and the USA plus the new kids on the block, Serbia and Argentina.

First things first, Serbia do have a definite chance of success this year and they have been nibbled at in the betting. However, there remains one flaw to this line of thinking.

The format of Davis Cup ties involves a clever piece of handicapping. Namely, one stellar player in a team will make a country competitive but it won't guarantee them success.

Why so? Well, you're star man can only play two singles rubbers. That may well give you two of the required three points needed to win the tie but he then has to take a breather during the Saturday doubles or be forced to play with some fellow-countryman who is ranked 479th in the world. Either way, his wondrous ability will be sidelined or compromised when victory is within sight.

Want an example? Switzerland. Roger Federer has carried all before him in the singles game for the past few years but have his country got even a sniff of Davis Cup success? Not a bit of it. Despite the Herculean efforts of arguably the greatest player ever to wear a Nike headband, Switzerland still come up short.

That is the problem with backing Serbia. Whilst Novak Djokovic is tantamount to being the world No.2 (and both Federer for Switzerland and Nadal for Spain aren't in Davis Cup action this year) he is still pretty much alone in his native Serbia. Yes, given time, Janko Tipsarevic may well become a competent performer but at the moment the weight of expectation lies squarely on the shoulders of Djokovic.

You might say that Tipsarevic isn't a dead loss. Well, no he isn't. Far from it. But we're also assuming here that Djokovic is fit and in form for each of the four ties - that's some assumption. And guess what? Djokovic missed the first day's action in Russia through illness and Tipsarevic did likewise!

No, the Davis Cup rewards team play and strength in depth. Add those to a clever seeding structure plus a choice of surface by the home nation and it also focuses on versatility.

This table shows the winners for the last 20 years and the chances are that the name on the trophy for this year, come November, won't be too much of a test for the engraver.

That will also bring into question the claims of the tournament favourites, Argentina who are currently trading around (3.0).

As we learned from Scott Ferguson's recent column (link below) the name of Argentina is only on the trophy as a runner-up. The South Americans do fit the bill in terms of strength in depth but the clay-courters will have to break the mould to win as no country from that continent has ever triumphed in the Davis Cup.

http://betting.betfair.com/tennis/the-wonderful-world-of-tennis/south-american-tennis-in-depressing-decline-010208.html

This highlights the need for versatility. In the same way that host nations always scupper the USA by playing them on clay, they do the same thing to Argentina by playing them on fast, indoor surfaces. So be warned!

In all, the Davis Cup is an intriguing event which will provide plenty of drama as it weaves its way through the 2008 schedule. Will we see a new name on the trophy though? Probably not. You should be looking at the old guard to come to the fore once again.