The Contrarian: Why Spain won't win the Davis Cup

Davis Cup Betting / The Betfair Contrarian / 17 September 2008 / Leave a Comment

This has been the year when Spain's athletes finally looked their massive inferiority complex in the eye and successfully stared it down. Euro 2008, Rafael Nadal, Alberto Contador in the Tour de France - suddenly Spain has found the confidence to win. But with success comes raised expectations, says the Betfair Contrarian.

On the surface it's easy to understand why Spain are the [2.2] favourites on Betfair to win this year's Davis Cup: they have world number one Rafael Nadal on their side and five of the top twenty players in the world hail from that country. But the Contrarian has seen plenty of teams and individuals destroyed when trying to transition from underdog to favourite, and believes the Davis Cup is one trophy that won't be flying home on Iberia this year.

Spain are the lowest ranked of the semi-finalists

The four semi-finalists - Spain, USA, Russia and Argentina - also happen to be the top four teams in the Davis Cup rankings, but Spain are the bottom of the bunch. The rankings are worked out from Davis Cup performances over the last four years, a period that includes the rise of Nadal and their success in 2004, so even though Spain appear to be in the ascendant, the others have ascended more consistently.

The top seeds won both semi-finals last year

In last year's Davis Cup, the two semi-finals were won by the team with the higher seeding. Matches this year have gone to form more than ever before, with ten out of 12 games being won by the higher seeds compared to just six of eleven (excluding last year's Germany/Belgium quarter-final where both were unseeded) at the same stage last year. Spain were seeded fifth for this year's Davis Cup, while semi-final opponents USA are the second seeds.

Spain have faith, but the Americans have form

USA may be missing doubles star Bob Bryan for this weekend's semi-final but the odds of [10.5] on them being victorious are huge. The Americans won the Davis Cup last year, winning every match 4-1 and have maintained that winning form with two 4-1 victories so far in this year's competition. On the way to winning the trophy last year they thumped Spain in the quarter-finals, with Spain's only win coming when they were already beaten at 3-0 down.
In addition, the last time the reigning Davis Cup champions lost a semi-final match was back in 1995 and even then, it was the USA who dispatched holders Sweden. Obviously Spain's home advantage will play a part but the Americans have also won their last two contests on clay, against Austria and the Czech Republic.

Having the world's best player doesn't count for much

It's understandable that people assume that having the world's best player at your disposal gives you an advantage, but this has not been the case. In just one of the last fifteen years has the country of the player who has ended the season as world number one enjoyed Davis Cup success - Pete Sampras' USA in 1995. If you go back further, the only other instance in the last 25 years and the other was again the USA (Jim Courier) in 1992.

Spain's performance last year could come back to haunt them

Three of the last four champions had reached the final four the year before their victory, whereas Spain were eliminated in the quarter-finals last year. Even more worryingly, only once since the Davis Cup adopted its current format in 1981 has a team who went out at the quarter-final stage been victorious the following year - Russia in 2002.

Football and tennis success doesn't mix

The nation that has won football's World Cup or European Championship has never lifted the Davis Cup in the same year, despite the fact that seven countries have succeeded in both.