Russia defend their title against Germany but Safin has gone AWOL

Davis Cup Betting / Barry Millns / 20 September 2007 / Leave a Comment

Sky Sports' Barry Millns previews Russia's clash with Germany and the USA's rubber versus a depleted Sweden

All four nations involved in this weekend's Davis Cup World Group semi-finals have a rich tradition in the event with no less than 45 titles between them. Russia continues its defence of the trophy against Germany in Moscow, while Sweden hosts USA in Gothenburg.

Last December, Marat Safin clinched the Davis Cup when he beat Argentina's Jose Acasuso in the final rubber in Moscow's Olympic stadium. That was on a carpet court but now with Russia's out-of-form talisman away mountaineering, captain Shamil Tarpischev has picked Nikolay Davydenko and Igor Andreev to make the most of the clay court laid in the same arena.

Andreev, who has won two of his three titles on clay and who beat both Fernando Gonzalez and Nicolas Massu on the dirt in Chile at the start of this year's campaign, will face Germany's No.1 Tommy Haas in the opening rubber. They have never faced each other before and while Haas, with a higher ranking recently reached the quarter-finals of the US Open, his confidence and concentration could be severely tested on the slow surface by the baseliner Andreev, who has one of the biggest forehands in the game.

World No. 4 Nikolay Davydenko will then take on Germany's Philipp Kohlschreiber in the second singles rubber. Two previous encounters have been split one apiece, but neither match was on clay and with Davydenko a two-times semi-finalist at the French Open, as well as at the US Open, Russia will be banking on him to win.

Saturday's doubles is scheduled to feature Russia's Dmitry Tursunov and Mikhail Youzhny versus Philipp Petzschner (making his debut in the absence of injured Michael Kohlmann) and Alexander Waske. But those nominations can be changed up to an hour beforehand and although Germany's captain Patrik Kuhnen may ring the changes, Tarpischev looks to have more options at his disposal with Russia currently backed in the market at 1.32 and Germany at 3.7.

An away win, though, seems far more likely to occur in Gothenburg where USA is backed at 1.19 to defeat Sweden at 4.5. Down the years the Swedes have enjoyed great success over the Americans at the Scandinavium stadium, including a 4-1 triumph in the 1984 final versus a team that included Jimmy Connors and John McEnroe.

But the current American captain Patrick McEnroe has again been able to call on the same team he has fielded for the last six ties, which means Andy Roddick and James Blake playing the singles rubbers, while brothers Bob and Mike Bryan take care of the doubles. For Sweden's captain Mats Wilander, though, the absence of injured Swedish No.1 Robin Soderling has forced him to risk the inclusion of Joachim Johansson - a former top 10 player who has not competed for eight months due to a third operation on his right shoulder.

Although the 6 foot 6 inch Swede famously beat Roddick over five sets in the quarter-finals of the 2004 US Open, it is asking a huge amount of him to do so again on this occasion in the opening rubber. But with Sweden opting for a fast carpet court, if Johansson's massive serve stands up to the pressure he could still do some damage against both leading Americans, especially if they go to tiebreaks.

Former Australian Open champion Thomas Johansson, one of three 30-somethings on the Swedish team, will then face Blake who has won both of their previous encounters. Johansson played one of his best ever Davis Cup matches to beat Argentina's David Nalbandian in the last round, but Blake also performed admirably in the quarter-finals versus Spain and should have the edge here.

As the world's top ranked doubles players, the Bryans also have the edge on paper over Jonas Bjorkman and newly crowned US Open champion Simon Aspelin. But right through to Sunday's reverse singles, if the ties remain undecided, with so much national expectation placed upon the players Davis Cup can do strange things to those involved and betting successfully on the outcome is going to require great care and attention.