Davis Cup Betting / Sean Calvert / 02 December 2011 /

It's Spain versus Argentina in the Davis Cup final once again and on day one we have should have a win for Rafael Nadal despite his indifferent form. But it's the match between Juan Martin Del Potro and David Ferrer that should make for fascninating viewing...

The 2011 tennis season comes to a close this weekend, as the last matches of the year for the top stars take place when Spain take on Argentina in the Davis Cup Final.

This year's final takes place on the clay of Seville with the hosts strong betting favourites at around [1.2] to lift the trophy for the fifth time in the last 12 years.

Argentina are yet to win the Davis Cup, after finishing second on three occasions in their history and they will largely be relying on Juan Martin Del Potro to lead them to a first title.

These two great tennis nations have met three times before in Davis Cup competition, with Spain winning all three, the most recent of which being the 2008 final in Mar Del Plata on hard-courts, which Spain took 3-1.

Spain captain, Albert Costa, has selected Rafa Nadal, David Ferrer, Feliciano Lopez and Fernando Verdasco in a strong looking side, while Argentine counterpart, Tito Vazquez, has opted for Del Potro, David Nalbandian, Juan Monaco and Juan Ignacio Chela.

Costa wasn't faced with the toughest of decisions when he opted for Nadal and Ferrer as his singles players for Day One, but Vazquez must have had some moments of deliberation before plumping for Monaco to compliment Del Potro and leave Nalbandian for the doubles.

So, the first match up on Friday is Monaco v Nadal, with the Spanish number one a skinny [1.06] to improve upon his 18/1 record in Davis Cup singles rubbers.

But on pure form over the last few months, you would have to give Monaco a shot in what will be his first match against Rafa for over four years.

Nadal looked anything but the world number two at the O2 last week and the beatings he's taken recently from Roger Federer and Andy Murray, plus the loss to Tsonga, must have dented his confidence.

The Argentine on the other hand has won seven of his last nine matches - admittedly on hard-courts - but with wins over the likes of Ferrer, Gilles Simon, Nico Almagro and JC Ferrero in his last two events, he must have a chance of taking a set on Friday.

Rafa usually raises his game on the clay at home and he's very likely to win this, but the value bet looks to be to lay Rafa 3-0 at around [1.4].

The second match should be more competitive, with Ferrer a [1.57] shot to defeat Del Potro in what will be their first-ever match on the red dirt.

They have met on four previous occasions on grass and hard-courts, with Delpo winning the last two matches, which were both in straight sets on hard, but they were back in 2008 and 2009.

Delpo should be the fresher of the two, having not played a tour match for almost a month and he should also have spent that time wisely by practicing on the clay.

If he's fit, and there have been reports of niggling injuries, then he stands a great chance of beating Ferrer again and setting up an intriguing second day.

Despite having played 77 matches this year to Delpo's 64, I don't think that Ferrer has ever felt tired in his life and he'll be good to go if this one goes long, which I think it might.

The Argentine number one has lost just one completed match on clay this year - and that was to Novak Djokovic - while Ferrer reached four finals on dirt, but only won one of them.

Ferrer has been beaten on the dirt this season by a similarly heavy ball striker in Robin Soderling so there's a possibility that Delpo's thumping groundies could cause Ferrer some problems and he might be a bit shorter than he perhaps should be after some great displays at the O2.

So, I think this could be a long one and it's worth taking a punt on Delpo, as on his best form he could make the [2.54] look quite generous.

Recommended Bets

Lay Nadal 3-0 v Monaco at [1.4]
Back Del Potro to beat Ferrer at [2.7]

Follow Sean on Twitter @seancalvert1

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