Davis Cup Day Three Preview: Everything depends on lineups as Spain seek unlikely victory

Davis Cup Betting / Sean Calvert / 23 November 2008 / Leave a Comment

Sean Calvert sets up the last day's play in Argentina, where the hosts and pre-final favourites, are 2-1 behind.

A tremendously exciting second day at the Estadio Islas Malvinas saw Spain gain a stranglehold on the 2008 Davis Cup and set up a fascinating final day's play.

Argentinean captain Alberto Mancini opted for a late change in yesterday's doubles by effectively telling David Nalbandian to go out and win the cup for the home side virtually single-handed. But the plan has backfired on Mancini whose side are now out to [2.44] for the outright win.

Nalbandian stepped into the breach in place of Jose Acasuso, his time may come today, in front of a ridiculously over the top home crowd, whose behaviour managed to exceed acceptable standards by some distance yet again.

If anything the Argentine fans managed to eclipse Friday's efforts and it was almost too much for the mentally suspect duo of Fernando Verdasco and Feliciano Lopez, who lost the opening set to Nalbandian and Agustin Calleri.

The pressure and weight of expectation from both the audience and Nalbandian proved rather too much for Calleri though, as the Spanish pair roared back to take the next three sets - not without the usual Verdasco dramas though of course, much to the delight of the fans.

All of which has created a number of scenarios for today and just in case Mr Mancini decides to throw in another selection curveball at the last minute, these are all of the options for the final rubbers this afternoon.

As it stands it is scheduled to be Juan Martin Del Potro v David Ferrer first up, followed by Nalbandian v Lopez, but all the early indications from Argentina suggest that the injured Del Potro will not play today and instead Acasuso will get his chance.

Spain are currently [1.72] to become the seventh nation in Davis Cup history to claim three or more titles and the omens are excellent for them to do so, as the winners of the doubles match have gone on to win the cup in 33 out of the last 36 finals.

Another interesting stat in Spain's favour is that Argentina haven't been behind in a home tie since 1997 when Ecuador were ahead and went on to win the fourth rubber, inspired by a young Nicolas Lapentti.

Argentina though are on a run of 14 straight home Davis Cup wins and their fans won't allow them to give up without a fight, but will Acasuso be able to rise to the challenge in front of the watching Guillermo Vilas?

The Buenos Aires resident has form in stepping in on the final day, but the omens aren't great for him, as he faced a similar situation in the 2006 final and was beaten by Marat Safin in the deciding rubber.

I've said many times recently that his scheduled opponent Ferrer is totally out of sorts though and it could well be the case that Emilio Sanchez opts to take the beleaguered Valencian out of the firing line after his embarrassment against Nalbandian, so it could be the case that the fourth rubber will be Acasuso v Verdasco.

That being the case you would have to fancy Verdasco to overcome his suspect temperament to win the title for Spain, despite the fact that he has a losing record against Acasuso.

Those stats are misleading, as they are several years old and not relevant to this speedy hard court surface, where Acasuso is not particularly comfortable. Verdasco of course is and a tense match between those two would certainly be entertaining viewing and most likely a trader's dream.

Should Sanchez stick with Ferrer, it will be the eighth time that he has met Acasuso, with Ferrer holding a 4-3 advantage, but all but one of those meetings have been played on clay and their solitary hard court clash was five years ago.

It would be an intriguing match given Ferrer's dismal form and it could well be that Acasuso, so often seen moodily slouching around in matches when he doesn't fancy it, might be inspired by the crowd to take the Spaniard out.

Then it would all rest on Nalbandian [1.29] and Lopez [4.4], which would be a fitting finale between the ties two best players.

Again, fitness will be a factor here, as Lopez admitted yesterday that he is tired and Nalbandian surely can't be any fresher.

The head-to-head between the two makes pleasant reading for the Argentine, who holds a 2-0 advantage, but the last of these was in 2006 and stats could go out of the window in the likely atmosphere, to be replaced by strength, stamina and courage and for that you would have to favour Nalbandian.

Much rests then upon the identity of the players contesting the fourth rubber and therefore it's over to you Mr Mancini to make the biggest decision of the 2008 Davis Cup.