Davis Cup Betting / Simon Mundie / 21 November 2008 /

Simon Mundie looks at the betting ahead of the first day of the Davis Cup in Mar Del Plata where the Nadal-less underdogs need some big performances.

At the end of what has been a fascinating year on the men's tour, there is one title still up for grabs, the Davis Cup. The Argentinean team, consisting of Juan Martin Del Potro, David Nalbandian, Jose Acasuso and Augustin Calleri, host a Spanish side featuring David ferrer, Fernando Verdasco, Feliciano Lopez and Marcel Granollers in Mar Del Plata.

Argentina start the final as heavy [1.22] favourites to secure their maiden triumph in the competition; hardly surprising bearing in mind the Spanish team ([5.4]) will be without their talisman and the best player in the world this year, Rafael Nadal.

The World number one from Mallorca was forced to withdraw from the final, just as he was unable to make the recent Shanghai Masters Cup, due to a recurrence of the knee trouble that has bothered him in recent years. If Nadal had been leading out his team, the role of underdog would most certainly be played by the Argentineans. Nadal's season was truly outstanding - he captured eight titles including the French Open, Wimbledon and the Olympics, and was just a couple of matches short of the single greatest season since Rod Laver won the second of his calendar Grand Slams in 1969. Losing a player of his calibre could well be a mortal blow to the hopes of the Spanish team, two-time past winners of the event, although that is not a forgone conclusion.

In Nadal's absence, the two players who will lead the Spanish assault on day one are world number 12 Ferrer and the world number 31 Lopez. Ferrer squares off against Nalbandian in the first match on the indoor hard court, a surface initially picked because the Argentinean side expected to be facing Nadal and didn't want to give him the benefit of a clay court, the surface on which he is considered virtually unbeatable. Ironically, that could now give Spain their best chance of success.

Neither Nalbandian ([1.23] to win the rubber) or Ferrer ([5.1]) have had their best seasons; Nalbandian finishing outside the top 10 for the first time in six years, while Ferrer has been unable to match his lofty achievements of 2007.

However, of the two, the Argentine is the form player, reaching the Paris Masters final on an indoor court just prior to the Masters Cup. Nalbandian does have a habit of saving his best tennis for the latter part of the year, and he could be peaking at just the right moment to lead his country to triumph. It would be a fitting tribute to a player whose talents have surely deserved a Grand Slam title, but who has been unable to quite fulfil his promise at the majors.

However, Nalbandian will have his work cut out against Ferrer, who holds a 6-3 lead in their career meetings to date. It's a good match up for the Spaniard, who is happy to trade groundstrokes with the Argentine for as long as is necessary, confident that he is in better physical condition should the match go the distance. He showed that he was more than willing to battle it out for as long as required when he displayed immense courage to come back from two sets to one down to dispose of Andy Roddick in the semi-finals 8-6 in the fifth set.

But I expect Nalbandian to take the first rubber in front of his home crowd to give his team the advantage. The onus is then on the surprise pick, Lopez to try and even things up.

Oddly for a Spaniard, Lopez is more of a fast court player. He has a vicious swinging left handed serve, a powerful forehand and sound volleys. His backhand is something of a weakness as his drive from that wing is unreliable, although his slice can be very effective. It's clear that Lopez ([4.1] to win the rubber) was picked because of the surface, and it's possible that he could be the find of the tie.

The Davis Cup final has a knack of throwing up surprise heroes, never more so than when Henri Leconte beat Pete Sampras to inspire his team to triumph in 1991. However, he had the advantage of playing in front of his home crowd, a luxury that Lopez will not have. The one thing in his favour is the fact that he has beaten his opponent Del Potro in their only meeting of 2008, winning 6-4, 6-2 in Miami, although he does trail 2-1 in career meetings.

The key factor in this match is how well Del Potro ([1.28] to win the rubber) performs. If he can reproduce some of the form he has displayed in the second half of this year, he will win and win comfortably, but he has admitted to feeling nervous and it will be a new experience for him to experience the pressure of being the highest ranked player in such an important and high profile encounter.

If Lopez can capitalise on Del Potro's nerves and rush him into errors, he could spring a surprise. If it was simply a best of three sets match his odds would be better, but as it is over five sets I think Del Potro will have the time to play himself into the match, and that could well prove fatal for both Lopez's chances, and indeed the Spanish team's as a whole.

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