Davis Cup Betting / Matthew Walton / 03 March 2009 / Leave a comment

An Andy Murray-less Great Britain will plummet to new depths if they fail to beat the Ukraine this weekend. Meanwhile, can Spain defy history and retain the Davis Cup? Matthew Walton discusses the facts and figures.

It's almost that weekend of the year when the Davis Cup begins for the world's leading tennis nations and usually ends for Great Britain.

Whilst 16 of the top tennis playing countries of the world begin their quest for the ultimate international team prize, the British stand to plummet to new depths should they fail to see off the Ukraine in their R2 match-up in Europe/Africa Group 1 (and without Andy Murray in their ranks it promises to be no easy task).

Last year's tournament was a great one, culminating in an epic showdown between two of the world's tennis super powers, Spain and Argentina. We called the winner on that occasion, arguing that the Spanish were capable of going to South America and winning the title, which they duly did when Fernando Verdasco came back from the brink to defeat Jose Acasuso (read full article here).

The question is whether the Spanish can do what no other team has done in the last decade ... defend the Davis Cup title. The feat was last achieved by Sweden in 1997/1998 and in recent times only Australia (2000), France (2002) and Russia (2007) have even made the final the year after winning the trophy. History is stacked against the [3.15] favourites.

However, three factors point heavily towards the defending champions going a long way to retaining their title.

One, they have the experience. Several players came of age in last year's competition, none more so than Verdasco, and these players now appreciate what it takes to win. And, remember, they won in Argentina without Rafael Nadal who was laid up with a knee injury and after losing the first rubber of the final. These guys really are a team.

Two, they have the players. Spain currently have 16 players in the top 100 - better than any other country. They have already had three different players winning tournaments in 2009 (Nadal and Almagro with one apiece and Robredo with two titles) as well as three different doubles winners (Nadal/Lopez, Granollers/Martin and Granollers/Robredo). Spain have real strength in depth.

Three, the draw. Serbia [14.0] in R1 is no easy opener but the bottom half of the draw also includes several very weak countries in Sweden [65.0], Israel [120.0], Austria [120.0] and Romania [120.0]. The other two nations are Germany [34.0] and Russia [6.4]. For sure, Spain may end up having to go to Moscow in the semi-finals and win - that's why the Russians are so short - but their historical head-to-head reads 4:1 to Spain and man for man they are a much stronger outfit.

Spain should be the side from the bottom half to make the final. Past winners like Sweden and Germany don't have the players at the moment and Russia, despite having a top 10 player in Nikolai Davydenko, lack sufficient back-up for their main man. Players like Youzhny, Safin, Andreev, Tursunov and Kunitsyn are good ... but not that good.

No, the draw in this year's Davis Cup becomes much more interesting when we look in the other section. Here the perennial threat of the USA and Argentina added to the resurgence of France and the emergence of Croatia make for a mouth-watering competition - and possibly a scrap of value.

In the first set of ties the favourites should all oblige. Argentina [8.2] get a gentle pipe-opener against the Dutch whilst the USA [11.5] should be able to see off a Federer-less Switzerland [13.5] on home soil.

The other two ties are more interesting but Chile [65.0] without Fernando Gonzalez are likely to feel the heat against Croatia [24.0] and France [6.0] have a very strong looking side - Simon, Monfils, Gasquet and Tsonga - with which to tackle the tricky looking Czechs [29.0].

It should be in the quarter-finals when this half of the draw comes alight as we should see Argentina having to go to France and Croatia hosting the USA*.

Both these quarter-final ties could go either way. France are strongly fancied this year and at home will be mighty tough to beat given their quartet of highly ranked players - however, in top performers like Juan Martin del Potro and David Nalbandian, Argentina have guys who have won on both hard courts and clay. This won't be a gimme for the French even if they do start as warm favourites.

The shock may come, and here's where the value comes in, with Croatia entertaining the USA. With players like Marin Cilic, Mario Ancic, Ivo Karlovic and Ivan Ljubicic they have a mixture of youth and experience, obvious power and a knowledge that the last time they played the Americans they won, and that was in their own backyard (Los Angeles) in 2005, the year Croatia went on to win the title!

Croatia also won their only other meeting (at home in 2003) and so a win for them would send no seismic shockwaves through the tennis world. You could easily see it happening.

Then, and here we go back to the pre-determined draw, we see that Croatia would be at home to France in the last four. Were that to happen, would you rather be on Croatia at [24.0] or France at [6.0]? If nothing else, the Croats offer huge 'back to lay' potential.

And, for good measure, they're even scheduled to play Spain at home in the final ...

Now this is just one take on the Davis Cup 2009. It's a long, disjointed and often very difficult tournament to read. Players inevitably will lose form and/or fitness during the year and their country, once considered certainties, will immediately become rank outsiders.

But the attraction of the competition, like all outright tennis betting, is that we have a draw, a fair amount of form available and a good set of odds to work with on Betfair.

On this basis, Spain deservedly start this year's event as favourites. They are the country to beat but are they necessarily the best value in the field? Probably not. France and Croatia look the countries most likely to challenge and, at the odds available, the clear choice has to be with the 2005 champions taking the trophy back to the Balkans.

As for Great Britain, let's try and beat those mighty Ukrainians first before we start dreaming of a first win since ... 1936.

* We'd point out here that the draw for the Davis Cup is pre-ordained in that we know in advance which countries will play each other and which of them will have 'home advantage'. And as we also know, that ability to choose the surface counts for so much in tennis which is why, for example, the USA always face slow surfaces on the road. Each year this changes in order to create a level, if slightly random, playing field.