Davis Cup Betting: Austria tie is no foregone conclusion for GB

Davis Cup Betting / Simon Mundie / 19 September 2008 / Leave a Comment

Team GB may have the world number four in their ranks but the Austrians are still capable of causing an upset, says Simon Mundie.

So the action returns to the hallowed lawns of Wimbledon for the next three days, as John Lloyd's British Davis Cup team take on Austria in a crucial Davis Cup promotion tie. Britain are favourites to win at [1.3], and rightly so with red-hot world number four Andy Murray in their midst. But be in no doubt that this is a tough tie, and in the past Team GB have lost against team's that were considered far easier prospects than the Austrians. It's certainly no foregone conclusion.

The tie gets underway today with Britain's underachieving Alex Bogdanovic against Jurgen Melzer. Now Andy Murray may be the form player of all those on show, but Melzer's recent record isn't too shabby either. He reached the quarter finals of the Beijing Olympics- losing to eventual Champion and World number 1 Rafael Nadal- and gave Andy Murray his toughest match during the Scot's run to the final at Flushing meadows. He was two sets up, firing winners of both wings with rare abandon, before Murray clawed his way back into the contest. In the end, Andy's superior physical conditioning proved key, but it was a lucky escape. Now Bogdanovic is yet to win a Davis Cup tie and has proved himself extremely flakey under pressure, so I think it's safe to back a Melzer win at [1.17].

After Melzer's dispatched with Boggo, it's the turn of the new World number 4 to wrap up what should be another straightforward victory. He's up against Alexander Peya - currently ranked 164th in the world, so Murray should have no problem taking care of him in straight sets [1.01]. He'll relish being back in front of his home crowd having proved to his doubters that he is a genuine Grand Slam contender for the game's biggest titles.

So after day one, it would be a big surprise if the tie wasn't level at one rubber each. The doubles could be key, and there are a number of factors at play. In an ideal world, Andy Murray will have made such quick work of Peya in his first singles that he will partner brother Jamie to take on Knowle and Melzer, despite John Lloyd having named Ross Hutchins as Jamie's partner ahead of the match. But Andy has had discomfort in his knee of late, and this can often be exacerbated by the switch from hard courts to grass. If he does feel a twinge, it could well be Jamie Murray and Hutchins as Britain's pairing.

Murray senior hasn't had the best time of it of late on the men's doubles circuit- culminating in his recent split with partner Max Mirnyi. Hutchins has showed glimpses of good form and is ranked 86th in the world in doubles, but he hasn't really played in such pressured circumstances, and that could prove decisive. Their opponents, Melzer and Knowle, know their way around a doubles court; indeed Julian knowle has got the 2007 US Open doubles title on his CV. If it is Hutchins and Murray who do turn out, I would expect an Austria win [1.05], leaving the visitors 2-1 up with two to play.

So it comes down to the final day. First up is a rerun of that titanic US Open third round clash between Melzer and Murray. Murray should have too much for the Austrian, particularly bearing in mind that I have never seen Melzer hit the ball as well as he did that day. Having said that, if he starts letting fly again and can maintain his form for three sets out of five, another Austrian win is certainly not beyond the realms of possibility.

But let's assume that Andy Murray does what is expected of him, then it will come down to the fifth and final rubber, and one Mr. Alex Bogdanovic. He would face Alexander Peya, a man ranked two places lower than him. So on paper, it would be close, and Boggo should sneak home. But one look at their head to heads doesn't bring cause for optimism. Peya has won both their previous meetings, and in convincing fashion. That, coupled with Boggo's inability to perform in David Cup competition, points to an Austrian win in that rubber and the tie. So it would appear the outcome depends on Andy Murray playing, and performing, on all three days. He's got the physical conditioning for it, as he likes to prove when he does his popeye impressions, but it's still a tall order, particularly as he and his brother looked less than convincing in the Olympic doubles competition.