Betfair Official Blog

Andy Murray can be the guy playing Federer in the final at Melbourne

Click here to view market

Mandeep tells us why Andy Murray and Mikhail Youzhny can be finalists at the Australian Open

The new season begins with fresh enthusiasm, and the first month on the tour is dominated by the first grand slam of the season. Having rested and recuperated, most players are looking to shake up the tennis world by ending the grand slam dominance of Federer and Nadal. The last few seasons have seen unexpected finalists. In 2006, Marcos Baghdatis famously appeared from nowhere to reach the final. Last year, Fernando Gonzalez destroyed all during a sensational run to the final.

So will the trend continue? Which of the current crop of outsiders have a real chance of making the final? Should they face Roger Federer, what chance would they have of actually beating the world number one?

This week, I have picked out my two best outside bets to shock the world:

Andy Murray

Having won the Qatar Open in Doha this season, Andy Murray has made a fabulous start to the season. In the off season, Murray had a high profile split from his coach Brad Gilbert, seemingly due to personal issues between the two men. Numerous reports indicated that Murray was not entirely happy with Gilbert, and wanted to find a coach who he enjoyed spending time with, and who had a similar tennis philosophy. Murray has teamed up with Miles McLagan and appears much happier for it. The initial results look extremely promising, and he has been concentrating on developing his serve and forehand. These are the right areas for him to work on, along with his conditioning. Last year Murray played superbly in a 5 set epic loss to Nadal. Should he able to handle the physical aspect, he is my first choice to reach the final (assuming he can avoid Federer until then). One crucial factor to be aware of is where and when he plays his matches. The heat in Melbourne can be very intense, so if you get to play your matches either under a roof, or at cooler times, it will be that much easier to recover.

Chances of beating Federer?

His chances are not as bad as you might believe, since Murray is constantly improving, and I believe Federer has reached his peak. Currently reports state that Federer is currently ill, so will arrive in Melbourne under-prepared. Having already beaten Federer on a hard court, Murray knows he has as good a chance as anybody.

Mikhail Youzhny

Youzhny is one of my personal favourite players on tour. I have briefly looked at his game before (http://betting.betfair.com/tennis/players-under-the-microscope/the-russian-brigade-the-fab-fo-1-140807.html), so will focus on the apparent changes during the off season. During his recent demolition of Nadal in the final of the Chennai Open, Youzhny vastly reduced his unforced errors. That combined with an aggressive intent to control the point from the outset, resulted an excellent tournament win. Should he be able to maintain this form and continue improving his mental control, he has a fantastic chance of reaching the final.

Chances of beating Federer?

Youzhny would have to play the match of his life to beat Federer (who leads the Head to Head 10-0!). He would almost have to play a perfect match, assuming Federer was playing well. It would be crucial in such a match he avoids Federer's forehand, and concentrates on utilising his backhand to pressurise Federer's own backhand.

The gap between the top 2 in the world and the rest is closing. The tour is getting more competitive and the two players highlighted have early season form and good conditioning. I would be very careful about betting on players based on last season's performances, as much can change in the off season. Backing these players in the winner market early would almost certainly give you a good trading price later in the tournament.