Australian Open Betting / Ralph Ellis / 23 January 2009 /

Ralph Ellis thinks brilliant Brit is beginning to look the real deal ahead of his third round clash with Jurgen Melzer, but it's the least vocal member of the big four he should worry about.

I can remember being sent to cover a Davis Cup tie when Britain, with David Lloyd in charge, went to play holders France in Bayonne. That was back in the early 1990s, we lost 5-0, and sat talking into the early hours at a restaurant wondering if Britain would ever get a player in the world top 50.

Then came Tim Henman and Greg Rusedski, and now we're judging Andy Murray on whether he can rise higher than the number four slot he's already reached.

Two matches into the Australian Open the signs are already promising. A couple of years ago I wasn't sure he'd ever have the levels of commitment needed to make the huge leap from the bottom half of the top ten into the top one or two. Now it's clear that he has got the work ethic to go with the talent.

As well as pushing himself through a tough pre-season in Miami, he's also changed agents and brought in some media specialists to help him brush up his image. And don't think that doesn't matter - holding yourself confidently off court, and not finding yourself in the middle of regular controversies makes it far more easy to perform on court.

So the noises coming out of Melbourne today in advance of his third round meeting with Jurgen Melzer are extremely encouraging. He's neatly turning the pressure back on to Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic over their claims that the bookies are wrong to make Murray the favourite.

"A few players disagree that I should be the favourite, but there have been some quite big contradictions from both of them," he says.

"By saying they should be favourites they are just putting more pressure on themselves. There's a reason why people think I've a chance to win here. I've played against them in the last few months and beaten them."

That's just the right sort of tone, and should send him out on court against Melzer in good order. The Austrian has been equally keen to avoid winding up Murray. Before they met in the Davis Cup last year he had suggested the Scot didn't have the bottle to win matches when he was favourite. Murray's response was to produce his best tennis and win in four sets.

No wonder Melzer was trying to avoid another wind up this time: "That was just the Davis Cup. We've already chatted here and he's a cool guy," he says.

So Murray has got all his preparation right to win the match, but he won't necessarily do it in three sets, and that's where the betting value should be. Britain's big star is as short as [1.6] to win 3-0, and I'd lay that. It's only in August at the US Open - played on the same sort of artificial hard court - that Melzer took their match at the same stage to five sets, showing he doesn't just give matches up by battling back from two sets down. And he also took a set off Murray in their Davis Cup clash in September at Wimbledon.

As for whether Murray or Federer should be favourite for the Aussie Open, I still think it's significant that Rafael Nadal has been strolling through without dropping a set so far and nobody is mentioning his name. He's now [4.6] to add the title to his current collection of Grand Slams.

Five things you might not know about Jurgen Melzer...

1. The 27-year-old left hander has only won once ATP tour title in his career, in Bucharest in 2006.

2. He won the Boys Singles title at Wimbledon in 1999.

3. He's still collected nearly three million dollars in prize money in his career.

4. His nickname is Douche Stamp after the tattoo on his upper back.

5. While Murray was working in Miami in the off season, Melzer was on holiday in the Maldives with Slovakian world number 19 Dominika Cibulkova, his mixed doubles partner in the US Open.

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