Can Tsonga handle the pressure or will he be "Serbinated"?

Australian Open Betting / Sean Calvert / 26 January 2008 / Leave a Comment

All you need to know about the betting on the final of the Australian Open as big-hitting Tsonga faces Federer's conqueror - Novak "The Serbinator" Djokovic

It's been a fortnight of surprises in Melbourne and who would have wagered on the final that has transpired?

Third seed Novak Djokovic takes on unseeded Jo Wilfried Tsonga for Roger Federer's crown in the early hours of Sunday morning and it promises to be a memorable occasion.

This year's tournament has seen both the men's and ladies favourites and number one seeds fall in straight sets prior to the final for the first time in a long while and it seems odd not to be watching either Federer or Justine Henin competing for the trophy.

However, who could deny that this year's event has been the most exciting and unpredictable Slam for some time and therefore the most watchable and the final could continue that trend.

As far as betting is concerned, I am firmly in the camp of the young Serb, having placed a wager on him at 15 at the back end of last year when his price drifted, following a series of tired efforts, culminating in a poor display at the Shanghai jamboree in December.

I was convinced that Djokovic was merely in need of a rest and that looks to have been the case, as he has taken out the likes of Hewitt, Ferrer and Federer without dropping a set.

A lot has been made of the number three seed's fitness at slams and therefore his ability to go all the way to a title, following his retirement at Wimbledon and consistent calls for the trainer at the US Open.

In both of those events however, he endured a couple of marathon encounters, which has not been the case in Melbourne and I think he will erase the memory of blowing a chance against Federer in the US final and claim the title here, quite possibly in straight sets at [3.05].

His opponent is celebrating a career breakthrough week, after showing glimpses of talent last year at both Wimbledon, where he ran into an in-form Gasquet in the round of 16 and at the US, where he ended Henman's career before capitulating in straight sets to Nadal.

Of course, the Frenchman has avenged both defeats here this year, having clearly learnt from those experiences and built on them to a degree where he now stands one match away from his first ATP tour crown, let alone his first grand slam final.

The big question of course regarding Tsonga is: will he realise his achievements when he steps on court at the Rod Laver Arena and let himself down, or will he do a Marcos Baghdatis from 2006 and continue to play as if down at the local practice court?

With Tsonga, the opponent always gets a chance at some stage in the match, however thus far none has been able to take advantage.

A repeat of his semi-final drubbing of Nadal is on offer at [13.0], however it is hard to see Djokovic not winning at least a set and I can't see Tsonga winning by any other scoreline than 3-2, which is currently [10.0].

The Serb will be determined to take this chance, after disposing of Federer and will looking to impose his authority on proceedings early, so a first set correct score bet of 6-2 could be worth an interest at [7.4].

Another wager to watch out for during the match will be Djokovic to take a set 6-0. The Frenchman has a habit of letting sets go when he feels he has no chance of getting back into them and if Tsonga does get ahead in the match, a Djokovic 6-0 comeback set is not as unlikely as it sounds.