Australian Open Men's Final Preview: Prepare for another classic instalment of Roger v Rafa

Australian Open Betting / Barry Millns / 31 January 2009 / Leave a Comment

Sky Sports tennis commentator Barry Milns is highly excited by the prospect of the two giants of the men's game going head-to-head again, and you should be too...

We all know what happened the last time these two met - one of the greatest matches ever played ended sensationally in near darkness last July at Wimbledon.

If this Sunday's Australian Open final comes anywhere close to emulating it we will be in for another treat.

Rafael Nadal's epic triumph on Centre Court was his 12th career win out of 18 matches to date against Roger Federer and his fourth in succession since the start of last season. Having both lost in the semi-finals in Melbourne in 2008, Nadal made the most of their subsequent meetings on clay by winning their final showdowns in Monte Carlo, Hamburg and most impressively again at Roland Garros.

But to beat the Swiss defending champion on 'his' patch at the All England Club was the highlight of Nadal's golden year, setting him up to usurp Federer as the world No.1 a few weeks later having also gained the Olympic title. If Federer had not retained his US Open crown in September I'm not sure we would be seeing him now about to contest his 18th grand slam final, but here he is back in great form, just one major short of Pete Sampras's record haul of 14 and out for revenge against Rafa.

Twelve months after Federer was undermined by a bout of mononucleosis he returned to Melbourne Park fighting fit and fully focused on winning the event for the fourth time. He may have lost earlier this month to Andy Murray in Abu Dhabi and then Doha, but the former champion was intent on proving who the real favourite is for this title and duly reached the fourth round without dropping a set to Andreas Seppi, Evgeney Korolev or Marat Safin.

If Tomas Berdych had held his nerve when leading an out-of-sorts Federer by two sets to love in the last 16, the Swiss might long since have departed. But having survived that scare he did not look back, dismissing Juan Martin Del Potro and then seeing off Andy Roddick again without dropping his serve.

Like Federer, Nadal has also played 20 sets (and just one more game) to reach his first hard-court grand slam final. But while the Spaniard never looked threatened by Christophe Rochus, Roko Karanusic, Tommy Haas, Fernando Gonzalez or Gilles Simon, his 5 hour 14 minute marathon semi-final victory over Fernando Verdasco means Federer will have a distinct advantage following an extra day off before they resume their rivalry.

Renowned for his immense physical and mental strength, even Nadal admitted: "Roger has a bit of an advantage over me. He's resting right now. But I want to try my best. It's very important for me to be in this final. Whatever happens on Sunday, I've started the season my best ever."

Indeed he has but as things stand in the winner's market, Federer is rightly trading as [1.69] favourite to become champion again while Nadal is [2.42] to claim his sixth major title and his first on a hard court.

There is no doubt that compared to last year Federer's main strengths - his serve, forehand and movement - are all back in fine fettle and he will have noted how Nadal struggled to return Verdasco's spinning second serves. It will be interesting to see if the Spaniard stands further up to Federer's than he did to his compatriot's because he often paid for returning short from too deep.

That said, though, Nadal will look to make good use of his 'lefty' serve out wide to the ad court, to pressure Federer's backhand as he loves to do with everything he has got and to pounce on anything short himself.

After the intense heat-wave of the last few days the temperature, thankfully, has dropped significantly. Some light showers were forecast for Sunday but no longer so the roof should remain open in Rod Laver Arena for the evening final and it just remains to see if Rafa has recovered enough to make it another memorable one.