Australian Open Betting / Matthew Walton / 31 January 2009 / Leave a comment

Matthew Walton has looked at the results of the last 20 Australian Open finals and all 18 clashes between Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal to help you decide on potential bets for Sunday's duel.

Given the recent history between the two finalists in the Men's Singles, there's a host of statistics available to help us determine which player will win this first Grand Slam of 2009.

To date Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer have played each other 18 times. Rafa leads 12:6.

However, Rafa's advantage is significantly boosted by a 9:1 record on his beloved clay. Away from the dirt, and remember we're playing on hard courts here, the record is 5:3 for Federer.

Rafa beat Federer in both Grand Slam finals they contested last year (Paris & Wimbledon).

However, this will be Federer's ninth Grand Slam final on a hard court ... and he's won all eight of the previous matches. Nadal has never before played in the final of a major on a hard court.

And so it goes. We can rally facts and figures back and fore across the net as to which player will come out on top when the ongoing rivalry of the No.1 and No.2 seeds continues in the Rod Laver Arena come Sunday.

Mind you, whilst we can expend a lot of time and effort in debating the whys and wherefores of Nadal over Federer, and vice-versa, we might very well be neglecting other areas of the match which have better opportunities for action. Those where the Betfair markets can very well offer us better bets, better value and better profits!

So, let's find out what they are ... which we did by studying the last 20 finals of the Australian Open, looking at the finals of the other Slams as well, plus an examination of the previous 18 matches between Rafa and Roger.

Number Of Sets
The amazing fact about the final of this Slam is that the last time it went to a deciding set was way back in 1988! There have been 20 subsequent finals, none of which have gone the distance.

That match between Mats Wilander and Pat Cash (Wilander won 8-6 in the fifth) is some 21 years ago. By comparison, the last five-setter at the French was in 2004, Wimbledon was last year and the US Open was in 1999.

It's interesting that the two hard court finals tend to produce shorter matches.

Given the history of the pair, and with that Wimbledon final still fresh in the memory, many traders might be expecting a long match but the statistics simply don't bear this out. And, in point of fact, only seven of their 18 previous matches (38%) have gone the distance.

On the figures, 11 of the last 20 Australian Open finals have been four set matches, 8 have been completed in straight sets and one (1990) was ended prematurely by a retirement.

In the last five years, the finals of the French Open, Wimbledon and the US Open have combined to produce five three-set finals, seven four-setters and just three five-set matches.

The overall impression is that a total of four sets is most likely, currently trading around [2.50].

Total Games
Intrinsically linked to the above, the total number of games is another market where traders might be better served going low rather than high.

In the last 20 years we've seen just two finals in Melbourne go beyond 40 games (2002 and 2008). Both were 42 game matches.

There was a 40 game match in 1995 when Andre Agassi defeated Pete Sampras but the 20 year average is only 33.36 games.

Also, as we stated above, there seems a similarity between this hard court Slam and that of the US Open. The last five finals in New York average out at 32.6 games per match.

The current line of over/under 42.5 games is a definite under on the data available for final matches. Yes, the head-to-heads of Nadal and Federer do put these figures to the test (their only hard court final to go five sets was a 50 game, five set marathon in Miami 2005) but so strong are the figures for this particular match that the under still appeals more at [1.73].

Set Betting
Another linked market in that you can hardly rule out a five set match and then propose that 3-2 to either player is a great bet!

This market seems slightly more favoured by common sense than statistics. If you prefer the four set outcome you're left with a clear choice - Rafa 3-1 at near [6.50] and Federer 3-1 at a scrap bigger than [4.0].

Set 01 Winner
Nadal has won the first set of their previous encounters 11 times out of 18 - that's 61% or odds of around [1.63]. Federer has drawn first blood in the remaining 7 ties - 39% or just over [2.50]. However, narrow this down to hard court matches alone and the statistics reverse themselves to read 3:2 in favour of Roger!

The truth probably lies somewhere between the two sets of data which would make current odds of [1.73] for Federer and [2.16] for Nadal probably a shade generous for the Spaniard in what for many will be a toss of a coin affair.

First Set Correct Score
In the last 20 Australian Open finals the most common occurrences have been for 6-2 (6 times), 6-4 (4) and both 7-6 and 6-3 (3 each).

As for their 18 previous match-ups, Nadal's favoured method of winning the first set is 6-3 or 6-2 (both 3 times) whilst Roger has 6-4 and 7-6 (twice apiece) as his most frequent scoreline.

Given the fast court conditions the preference would be to look on the high side (furthermore both men are highly experienced and nerves won't be a factor).

First set tie-breaks are rare but that seems Federer's best hope at just shy of [7.0] - he's started off 5 of his 13 Slam title matches with this scoreline. Rafa's value lies with either 6-3 at around [9.0] or a punt could be taken on 7-5 at a huge [15.0].

Federer/Nadal +/- Games
All the other markets discussed can be seen as separate from the outright winner market but your view of these odds will be strongly tempered by your preference for the overall match winner. As such, a tough one to call.

If you fancy Federer to win the match, then taking the extra handicap of 1.5 or 2.5 games (and so a shorter price) doesn't seem that attractive. Just back him in the outright market at better odds. As for Rafa, this is probably a better call but even plus 5.5 games the odds of [1.41] might suggest that if he can get this close to Federer then take a gamble with the outright win.

That said, on the statistics available, that last bet is a pretty solid call.

It promises to be a great match and another enthralling chapter in the continuing rivalry between the world's best two players. However, it can also be a way to end the first Grand Slam of the year with a little profit courtesy of Betfair!

Enjoy the match.