Australian Open Day 12 Tips: Unpredictable Slam could send surprise Spaniard to first final

Australian Open Betting / Ben Caudell / 29 January 2009 / Leave a Comment

Ben Caudell sees Friday's all-Spain semi at the Australian Open being closer than the betting suggests.

Roger Federer eased in the final of the Australian Open with a comfortable straight sets win over Andy Roddick today. The Swiss master managed to up his game when it was most needed and broke the American at crucial stages of sets two and three with the games poised at 5-5. The final score was a creditable 6-2, 7-5, 7-5, however this was the fourth semi-final for Roddick at the Australian Open, all of which have ended in defeat. Federer has now won 16 of his last 18 matches against the American.

My tip to 'lay' Roddick to hit the most aces was a success. The A-Rod prides his game on his blistering serve, and not surprisingly he went into a commanding 5-1 lead early on in the first set to send his odds tumbling to below [1.2] in the market.

But, as pointed out in yesterday's article, the stats strongly favoured Federer to hit more aces. From their last six matches, Federer had served more aces on three occasions, drawing two, and Roddick winning one. It was therefore no surprise to see the super Fed claw back Andy's lead and eventually hit double the amount of aces than his opponent (16-8).

There's only one singles match to bet on tonight/tomorrow morning so finding a value bet will be a little trickier. It'ss an evening match and features the two most impressive Spaniards at this year's event Rafael Nadal from Mallorca and Fernando Verdasco from Madrid

Rafael Nadal v Fernando Verdasco
These two left-handers have played seven matches against each other and Nadal leads the head-to-head 7-0. The 22-year-old has been in scintillating form, reaching the semi-final in Melbourne for only the second time in his career.

Meanwhile, Verdasco has never been further than the fourth round of a Grand Slam, and is also in the form of his life having already knocked out favourite Andy Murray, last year's finalist Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and Radek Stepanek.

This match should be a formality for Nadal boasting a 90% record against Spaniards and a 24-0 record against lefties. However, the Australian Open has always been less predictable than the other Grand Slams, and this might well be another year where we see a rank outsider in the final again.

Selection: Back Fernando Verdasco +6.5 Games @ Even Money
Selection: Back over 30.5 games @ 1.65