Australian Open Betting / Barry Millns / 21 November 2007 /

Safin and Johansson round the other title winners but surely they can't compete with the Swiss, says Barry Milns

As a serial winner of major titles Roger Federer is currently trading at [1.62] to claim the Australian Open next January for a fourth time in five years. Bearing in mind how the Swiss defended his title last time in Melbourne, without dropping a set, plus the form he has just shown in Shanghai to clinch his fourth Tennis Masters Cup, he is understandably odds-on to do so.

Back in 2004, Federer entered the draw ranked No.2 in the world, yet until then he had never reached the quarterfinals in four previous visits down under. But having made his grand slam breakthrough the previous July at Wimbledon, claiming his first Tennis Masters Cup title at the end of 2003 in Houston also filled him with huge confidence as he beat Andre Agassi (twice including in the final), David Nalbandian [13.5], Juan Carlos Ferrero [740] and Andy Roddick [38] in succession.

Federer then eased his way through the first three rounds in Melbourne before earning successive four-set victories over Lleyton Hewitt [70] and Nalbandian. Ferrero was then swept aside in the semi-finals prior to an impressive straight sets triumph over another former No.1, Marat Safin [250], a result which ultimately took Federer to the top of the rankings where he has remained ever since.

Safin is the only player post-2004 to have beaten Federer at Melbourne Park, the Russian gaining his revenge the following year in a five-set semi-final, ranked No.4 at the time. Federer twice led by a set and held a match point in the fourth set, only to attempt an injudicious shot between his legs which allowed Safin to stay in contention.

The tall, powerful and athletic Russian then made the most of his big serves and ground strokes to topple the champion before going on to dash Australian hopes by beating Hewitt for his second major title. At the time Safin seemed to be the one player who was more capable than any other of threatening Federer's supremacy but injuries and loss of confidence have undermined him since.

Thomas Johansson surprised everyone including Safin back in 2002 when ranked No.18 he went all the way to the final and overcame the Russian in four sets for his solitary major title. A powerful serve, allied to a fine two-handed backhanded and the tag of 'underdog' did wonders for him that fortnight but now approaching his 33rd birthday and following a largely disappointing season, nobody's backing him to be the next 'Wizard of Oz'.

Someone who definitely was on numerous occasions is Agassi, a man who came to embrace the event after initially giving it the cold shoulder. Making his debut in 1995, as world No.2, he took the title off top seed Pete Sampras, the Rebound Ace surface suiting his hard-hitting, fast-moving aggressive style.

Subsequent titles followed in 2000, 2001 plus 2003 and only Federer comes close in the modern era to matching the American's Australian Open record as Agassi won 46 matches in his nine visits (Federer is 36 in eight).

Certainly the variety of champions in Melbourne in recent years would suggest that the surface offered something for everyone, that it could take slice or topspin to suit any style of play. But complaints about its 'sticky' nature in the extreme heat causing injuries and its relatively slow pace have now led to Rebound Ace being replaced by Plexicushion courts which the organisers believe will offer a faster paced, more attractive tournament.

Although the courts will not be as quick as those at Wimbledon and the US Open, Federer should be more than happy with the change. But after Nalbandian's recent exploits in Madrid and Paris, the Argentine stands second favourite in the market ahead of Rafael Nadal [14.5], Novak Djokovic [15] and Andy Murray [28], with last year's runner-up Fernando Gonzalez way out at [170].

Who do you think could pose the biggest threat to Federer's title defence?

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