ATP Tour Finals Betting / Ben Caudell / 25 November 2011 /

The stats suggest the world no.1 isn't at his magnificent best and fellow Serbian Janko Tipsaveric can run him close this afternoon, says Ben Caudell

* Reasons to Lay Djokovic 2-0 @ [1.85] (Novak Djokovic v Janko Tipsarevic - 2pm Match)
• Novak leads the head-to-head series 3-0, however in all three matches, fellow countryman Tipsarevic has won at least one set.
• Since his US Open tournament win in August 2011, Djokovic has played ten matches, retiring from two and losing at least one set in seven.
• Novak lost to David Ferrer in straight sets in his previous round robin match 6-3 6-1 and was quoted as saying that this was his worst performance of the year, if not his career...
• There are so many permutations as to who can still qualify from Group (A), however the basic scenarios are as follows: 1, If Djokovic beats Tipsy in straight sets, he would advance if Ferrer won at least one set off Berdych (i.e. either a Ferrer match win or a Berdych win in three sets). 2, If he beats Tipsy in three sets, he would advance if Ferrer beat Berdych in their match outright. 3, If he loses to Tipsy, he would advance if Ferrer beat Berdych in their match outright. Therefore a Djokovic match loss is far more desirable than a three set win over Tipsarevic.
• Tipsarevic has excellent form on indoor hard courts, the Serbian number two holds tournament wins in Kuala Lumpur and Moscow and a finals appearance in St Petersburg.


* Reasons to Back Ferrer -2.5 Games @ [2.32] (David Ferrer v Tomas Berdych - 8pm Match)
• David Ferrer seems to be mirroring Nikolay Davydenko's famous World Tour Final's performance level which saw the Russian upset the odds to win the title in 2009. The Spaniard is undefeated so far at this year's event and will want to keep it that way securing top spot in group (A) furthermore, avoiding Roger Federer in the semi-finals.
• Ferrer holds a 5-2 head-to-head series lead over Tomas Berdych including two wins indoors (Kuala Lumpur 2010 and Paris 2007)
• Berdych's first serve has been less than 50% in both of his previous round robin matches, Ferrer has one of the best returns in the game and has won more than 50% of all first serve returns against top players, including Djokovic and Andy Murray. Therefore we can assume that Ferrer will have his chances to break serve and control the tempo of the game.
• Ferrer has won 75% of his matches played on indoor hard courts within the last 12 months, he also comes into tonight's match possessing a superior surface rating, match rating (Match Ratings assess form specific to the current tournament conditions and the opposing player taking into account head-to-heads) and world ranking.

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