ATP Tour Finals Stats: Berdych to clinch it in a decider

ATP Tour Finals Betting / Ben Caudell / 26 November 2011 /

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Tomas Berdych has a 2-0 head-to-head record against Tsonga but is somewhat surprisingly the underdog going into this match

"Czech number one Tomas Berdych will be full of confidence after his three set win over David Ferrer which allowed him to qualify for the semi-finals in the Master Series Finals for the first time in his career."

Two mouth-watering semi-finals await us today at the 02 Arena in London but what do the stats tell us about where our money should go? Ben Caudell has all the answers.

4 Reasons to back Roger Federer 2-0 @ [1.45] (Roger Federer v David Ferrer - 14:00 Match)

•All the stats heavily favour the reigning ATP World Tour Finals Champion Roger Federer to make it through to the finals for the seventh time in his illustrious career. The former world number one has amassed an incredible 84% of match wins at this end of season finale, and is still on course for a bumper pay-out if he were to go all the way and record a sixth World Tour Finals title.

•Federer leads the head-to-head series against the Spaniard 12-0 with nine of those twelve wins triumphing in straight sets. Three wins have come indoors, all in straight sets, with their most recent match-up taking place at the London O2 in 2010, which saw Federer prevail 6-1 6-4

•The Fed Express comes into this afternoon's semi-final match with nineteen indoor hard court wins in a row, eight in a row at the Masters Cup, five in a row against Top 10 players, and eighteen in a row when priced as a heavy favourite ([1.20] or lower)

•David Ferrer lost his only match of the event after being a set and break up against Tomas Berdych, eventually going out 3-6 7-5 6-1. Ferrer has also lost eight of his last nine matches when priced as a heavy underdog ([6.00] or more)

5 Reasons to back Berdych 2-1 @ [5.20] (Tomas Berdych v Jo Wilfried Tsonga - 20:00 Match)

•Czech number one Tomas Berdych will be full of confidence after his three set win over David Ferrer which allowed him to qualify for the semi-finals in the Master Series Finals for the first time in his career.

•All three of his round robin matches were played out over three sets, winning two (David Ferrer, Janko Tipsarevic) and losing one (Novak Djokovic).

•Berdych holds a head-to-head series lead over Tsonga (2-0), a three set win at the Besancon Challenger event on indoor hard in 2004 and most recently, a three set semi-final win in Beijing October 2011.

•Surprisingly Tsonga is the [1.67] favourite to make it through to the final, even though Berdych holds a superior surface rating, match rating (Match Ratings assess form specific to the current tournament conditions and the opposing player, taking into account head-to-heads) and predicted chance of winning, which stands at 56%.

•Berdych has won eight of his last nine matches when his opponent is a big server and four of his last five when priced as an underdog.

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