ATP Tour Finals Betting: Will Tipsy fall over again?

ATP Tour Finals Betting / Sean Calvert / 25 November 2011 /

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Tipsarevic take a tumble against Berdych

"If Berdych can serve well, which he didn’t against Tipsy, and cut out the errors he could overpower Ferrer."

Sean Calvert explains why he's expecting two three set matches on Friday at the O2 Arena...

Thursday proved to be a much better day the World Tour Finals, as sanity prevailed, both of our bets were successful and no-one mentioned illness or injury.

Roger Federer just about brought home our first bet of the day, by beating Mardy Fish -4.5 games on the handicap after a worrying second set blip.

In that second set, all Fish's injury problems seemed a thing of the past, as the American was running around like a spring chicken, firing winners all over the shop.

It could have been the prospect of some Thanksgiving turkey after the match, but fortunately Fed raised his game in the third to win by five games and my suggestion to back Fish in 'most aces' proved correct too.

Then Jo-Wilfried Tsonga did the business against Rafa Nadal for a most welcome day.

Friday's opening match at the O2 involves the Serbian pair Novak Djokovic and Janko Tipsarevic and with the pair due to go on their holidays together after this tournament, you wouldn't want to be putting your mortgage on this one being a hard fought classic.

That's assuming of course that Tipsy is fit after falling over on match point in his loss to Berdych in his opening match as alternate at the O2.

Janko played well enough to have won that match and if Djokovic is close to the awful level he was at against David Ferrer, you would have to give Tipsy a shot at around [3.85].

But, with the qualification scenario from Group A being rather complicated and with Tipsy unable to qualify, common sense would dictate that when push comes to shove, Serbia's number two might feel inclined to be slightly generous to his pal.

The other conspiracy theory is that having won all of their four meetings so far, Djokovic could well want this season to be over and he may not be too upset to lose this one and head for the sun. Few could argue that it wouldn't be well-deserved.

So, the [1.34] about a Djokovic win is too short given his displays here so far and with Tipsy potentially injured and unable to qualify, I'm not keen on him at [3.85] either.

The answer to this might lie in the total sets market, with three sets looking the bet at around [2.62].

Tipsy had every chance against Nole at the US Open this summer with the score at a set apiece before hitting the wall and retiring and I think this will go to a decider again.

The evening match is another tough one to call, with the suddenly inspired David Ferrer taking on Tomas Berdych.

Again, with Ferrer having already qualified for the semi-finals, even the Spaniard's legendary intensity might drop a fraction, but will the Berdman be able to capitalise after his error strewn performance against Tipsarevic?

The pair have met on seven occasions, with Ferrer leading 5-2 overall, but they've only played once in the last four years and a lot has changed in that time.

Ferrer has played the best tennis in this group by far and I'm leaning towards backing the world number five at around [1.85], but if Berdych can serve well, which he didn't against Tipsy, and cut out the errors he could overpower Ferrer.

It's always difficult to make a pick in the Czech's matches because of his ever changing mental state, but he should be buzzing after that Tipsy win and I did respect the way he fought against the Serb despite playing dreadfully at times.

Lets take a chance on this one going to a decider as well at around [2.31].

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