ATP Tour Finals Betting / Sean Calvert / 24 November 2011 /

One of the few players who looks to be fully fit, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, faces in Rafael Nadal a player who is anything but fit. Side with the big-serving Frenchman to send Nadal home, says Sean Calvert.

As I said yesterday, there's every chance of you getting a game if you take your kit and hang around the O2 long enough and it just got weirder at the World Tour Finals on Wednesday.

After having had a match point, first alternate Janko Tipsarevic fell over when match point down to my tip Tomas Berdych and left the court limping and defeated.

And then we saw David Ferrer beat Novak Djokovic in straight sets - the first time that's happened in a year and the worst performance by the Djoker all year in, his own words.

Regular readers might recall that I backed Ferrer to win this event last year at a huge price and he lost all three matches, so it's particularly galling that the scurrying Spaniard is now playing off the charts.

Djokovic was all over the place last night and who knows what sort of condition he's really in at the moment.

So, all of this means that there's every chance that Nicolas Almagro might have to fill in for the first alternate - or perhaps Mardy Fish, if the American decides not to play today against Roger Federer.

Apparently, Fish is going to turn up, but he stands very little chance of causing an upset against the Swiss maestro in his suspect physical state. So in the bizarro world of the Tour Finals, that means lump on Fish at [8.4] - he'll probably win in straights.

In reality, the only thing is Fish's favour is that he stands no chance of qualifying so he can go out and enjoy it against Fed, but then again the Swiss has qualified already, so he's under no pressure either.

There's little value in backing Federer at [1.13] to win, so it's worth looking at the alternative markets in this one.

Although Federer is 6-1 up in the head-to-heads, Fish has won one and gone close in the second of their last two meetings and he has out-aced the Swiss in six of their seven meetings, so it might be worth siding with Fish at [2.1] in the most aces market.

The pair haven't played each other so far this year and they've never met on an indoor court before, but based on Fish's injury restricted effort against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Federer's current form, it's hard to make a case for the American number one.

Further bad news for Fish is that Federer is unlikely to ease off, as only once in his nine previous year end championships appearances has the Swiss lost his third round robin match once qualified.

That was against Juan Martin Del Potro in 2009 and in his final group match last year, Federer beat Robin Soderling in straight sets.

It must also be remembered that Fish has lost six of his last seven matches and so all in all, the logical bet has to be Federer -4.5 games on the handicap at [1.73].

The second match of the day is scheduled to be Rafa Nadal against Jo Wilfried Tsonga, with the big Frenchman the favourite at around [1.76].

This is due to Rafa's below par efforts at the O2 so far this week and the fact that he's been ailing from both sickness and an injured shoulder.

After a severe drubbing from Roger Federer on Tuesday night, Rafa will no doubt want to put on a better show for the London audience tonight, but how much will he want to test his shoulder with the Davis Cup Final coming up?

Tsonga has justified his status as my long shot in this event thus far, with a decent showing against Federer and a straight sets win over Mardy Fish.

On form, you simply have to side with Tsonga in this one, as we know he can beat Rafa on a hard-court, but interestingly, he has lost both matches indoors to Nadal.

And both of those wins for Nadal came on quick indoor courts in Rotterdam and Paris. But Tsonga is a much improved player since 2009 when both of those matches took place and Rafa looks like he can't wait to go on holiday at the moment.

Tsonga on the other hand is fit (hopefully), eager and ready to take his place in the semi finals. Back the big man to do just that.

Recommended Bets

Back Federer -4.5 games versus Fish at [1.73]
Back Tsonga to beat Nadal at [1.76]

Follow Sean on Twitter @seancalvert1

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