ATP Tour Finals Betting: Tsonga to give Federer plenty to think about

ATP Tour Finals Betting / Sean Calvert / 27 November 2011 /

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Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has enjoyed the conditions in London this week and looks pretty pumped up for this tournament

"Federer also showed that same ability to lose his way from a commanding position against Mardy Fish in his final group match and the win over Rafa Nadal apart, I don’t believe that he’s been at his absolute best or that he's unbeatable on this surface this week, as some will have you believe."

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga comes into this match as a proper outsider and that's understandable given Roger Federer's pedigree, but in these conditions, there are good reasons to believe that the Frenchman will run him close, says Sean Calvert.

It was one winner and one losing bet on Saturday at the ATP World Tour Finals, but the good news is that my tournament longshot, Jo Wilfried Tsonga, is in the final.

The bad news is that he faces defending champion, Roger Federer, but to help us work this one out we have a fair bit of assistance, as the pair will be meeting for the eighth time this season this evening.

The Swiss maestro leads 5-2 in their 2011 head-to-heads and 7-3 in career meetings, which makes him a solid [1.3] shot to collect another World Tour Finals title. But I won't be backing that today.

If he wins, Federer will have been successful at a record six World Tour Finals in his career and it's highly likely that he will do just that, but I expect Tsonga to push him hard.

David Ferrer seemed to be a beaten man before he even came on to court yesterday, with more unforced errors than we've seen from him this week when he faced Federer, but Jo won't be cowed by Fed today.

Fed and Tsonga's opening group match here at the O2 on Sunday highlighted how the Swiss can lose his way in matches these days and I will certainly be backing Tsonga at a big price again if Federer wins the opening set.

Federer also showed that same ability to lose his way from a commanding position against Mardy Fish in his final group match and the win over Rafa Nadal apart, I don't believe that he's been at his absolute best or that he's unbeatable on this surface this week, as some will have you believe.

As I said yesterday, whoever served the better out of Tsonga and Berdych would win their semi and the Frenchman did just that with 90% of first serve points won, but he also hammered the Czech's second delivery, winning 71% of points on the Berdman's second serve.

Returning like that today gives Tsonga a chance, but I doubt whether Federer will be as generous as Tomas in that regard.

Federer's variety on serve has been impressive this week and there's every chance that we could see one of those virtuoso performances from the Swiss as he bids to overtake Stefan Edberg's career wins mark in what is the 100th final that Federer has contested.

Tsonga has shown plenty of improvement himself late in the season though and he should have enough in the tank to make a match of this, so I think that today's best value bet has to be to back Tsonga with a 3.5 game start on the handicap at around [2.16].

Follow Sean on Twitter @seancalvert1

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