ATP Tour Finals Betting / Sean Calvert / 22 November 2011 /

Upset stomachs, groin injuries and other ailments have dominated the headlines so far at the O2 even more than the tennis itself. But today it's Federer v Nadal in the latest instalment of one of sport's great rivalries. Federer should win a close one...

Andy Murray's secret groin injury put paid to our first bet of the day at the World Tour Finals on Monday when he limped to a straight sets defeat to David Ferrer.

As for Novak Djokovic, he was backed in to [1.35] from [1.5] to beat Tomas Berdych and he just about did it, thanks largely to a Czech choke, but a slow start meant he was taken all the way by the Berdman.

Betting on these World Tour Finals should come with some sort of health warning, as after only two days' play we have Rafa Nadal, Murray, and Djokovic under injury/illness clouds and it's anyone's guess who's going to succumb to an ailment next.

On to Tuesday's matches at the O2 Arena then and first up is Jo-Wilfried Tsonga versus the apparently no-longer-injured Mardy Fish.

Assuming - and it's quite a leap of faith - that neither of these two players have contracted any kind of health problem overnight or in practice this morning, this should be quite a competitive match.

The two outsiders of Group B have met only once in their careers and that meeting came at this year's US Open, when Tsonga came through a tight five setter by winning the last two sets.

Tsonga was his usual mix of sublime and erratic against Roger Federer in his opening match and he's developed a worrying tendency of starting off matches slowly of late, which puts me off backing him to win in straight sets at around [2.5].

In any case, Fish is not to be discounted in this match after a decent - and more importantly injury-free - display against an admittedly sick Nadal in his first match.

As the [1.57] favourite, the pressure will be on Tsonga to get a result and a relaxed Fish could prove a tricky opponent for the world number six.

I think the best bet in this one lies in the total games market, which I think will be over the 23.5 game mark at around [1.85], as I can see this one going to a decider.

The Group B match that everyone is waiting for between Nadal and Federer takes place on Tuesday night, with Federer the favourite at around [1.5] based on the current form of the pair, Rafa's dodgy stomach and Federer's indoor prowess.

But would you feel comfortable lumping on Fed at [1.5] given his 8-18 head-to-head record against the Spaniard?

That's too short for me, but I do like the look of backing the Swiss to win two sets to one at around [4.2].

Rafa's usual tactic of getting the ball up high with topspin to the Federer backhand doesn't work as well on indoor courts, as was proven in the final here last year, but even then the match went to three sets despite Nadal having played an exhausting semi final against Murray the day before.

That said, the courts at the O2 this year do appear to be taking a bit more spin than 12 months ago, so that's a plus for Nadal fans too.

Federer also showed against Tsonga that he does sometimes go AWOL in matches for a while these days and the Fed Express has only managed to beat Rafa in straight sets three times in their 26 matches.

Interestingly, this match will be the first time since the spring of 2004 - their first ever match - that this stellar pair have faced each other in anything other than a semi final or final of a tournament.

The key stat is that the Swiss maestro has never lost to Rafa indoors and he should take it again. It's worth taking a chance that it will be in a decider.

Recommended Bets

Back Over 23.5 games in Tsonga v Fish at [1.85]
Back Federer to beat Nadal 2-1 at [4.2]

Follow Sean on Twitter @seancalvert1

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