ATP Tour Finals Betting / Sean Calvert / 26 November 2011 /

Friday proved to be another great betting day at the World Tour Finals, as both matches went to deciding sets, as predicted.

After an extremely difficult start to the week, due to the fatigue, injury, illness and disinterest of the players (hands up, those who backed Ferrer and Berdych to qualify) we're down to four fit ones and our balances are looking much healthier.

That didn't stop it being a costly day for some though, as both Novak Djokovic and David Ferrer lost, having traded at heavy odds-on in running - Ferrer failing from [1.03] against Tomas Berdych last night.

And Ferrer's punishment for that choke is a harsh one. A 12th meeting with Roger Federer in this afternoon's match is what the Spaniard has to deal with and he hasn't won any of the previous 11.

The last time that this pair met was here at the O2 last year in the group stage and the Swiss eased to a straight sets win that day and he's as short as [1.4] to do that again this afternoon.

Ferrer appeared to hit the wall last night in the final set against Berdych, but it's a good bet that he'll be back fresh as a daisy today. The man is a machine and not one you'll ever hear moaning about the schedule.

It's not impossible that Ferrer could take this today at a whopping [8.6] and he could use Nikolay Davydenko as inspiration, as the Russian won his 13th match against Federer after 12 previous losses on this very court two years ago.

And the Spaniard has been playing some fabulous tennis this week, so I wouldn't write him off totally, but last night would have knocked his confidence and let's hope that vile pink shirt stays in his bag today, as I can't look at that for a prolonged period today.

If you fancy an outsider, Ferrer certainly isn't the worst wager. But the bet that's more likely to come to fruition is the over 19.5 games on the handicap at around [1.9].

The Spaniard will battle to the last today and I'm not convinced that Federerwill see him off as comfortably as the odds suggest.

After that it's a clash that I'm looking forward to watching in the form of Berdych against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and this has the makings of a highly entertaining encounter.

Surprisingly, the pair have only met once in a completed match on the ATP Tour and that took place in the semi finals of Beijing a few weeks ago, with the Czech running out the winner in three sets.

I really don't like the [1.7] about the Frenchman in this one, despite him being the fresher of the two (having not played since Thursday night) and I feel that the Berdman is on a bit of a roll here, with the stats of their Beijing clash telling a story.

The Czech created nine break point chances that day, compared to Tsonga's one and looking at this season's stats, that is borne out by the Czech's clearly superior record on return of serve.

This match is largely dependent on who serves the better and as these two are closely matched and I can see Berdych having to go the distance yet again.

I quite fancy backing Berdych to take this in the decider at around [4.9], but this could prove to be another close one, so backing the three sets looks the call again at [2.38].

Recommended Bets

Back over 19.5 games in Federer v Ferrer @ [1.8]
Back three sets in Berdych v Tsonga at [2.38]

Follow Sean on Twitter @seancalvert1

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