ATP Tour Finals Betting / Sean Calvert / 23 November 2011 /

There are more injury updates to speak of and it may not be too long before we get our second reserve, Nicolas Almagro, seeing some action. Novak Djokovic still doesn't 100% fit but disposing of David Ferrer still shouldn't be too much of a problem, says Sean Calvert.

The O2 injury jinx struck again on Tuesday at the World Tour Finals, as Mardy Fish was unable to sustain his effort against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Rafa Nadal looked like he was playing with what appeared to be a substantial hangover, but which turned out to be a dodgy shoulder.

The American had our overs bet trading at [1.38] from [2.0] and was a break up in the second set before crumpling to allow Tsonga six games in a row and the match.

Rumour now has it that Fish won't play his final match against Roger Federer, so Nicolas Almagro had better get himself warmed up and if there are any more injuries, this ridiculous end of season knockabout will become even more of a farce with no more alternates available. Bring your racquet to the O2, you might get a game yet.

In the evening session we were treated to a superb display from Federer, but a clearly out-of-sorts Nadal was unable to offer anything like the resistance he normally shows and the Swiss cruised it in straight sets.

And just what we need after another injury and illness-affected betting day is a replacement showing up to take the place of the withdrawn Andy Murray for the first match up on Wednesday.

Janko Tipsarevic walks into the O2 Arena for his debut in the World Tour Finals and adds yet another dimension to a pointless tournament that's proving a fabulous one for the layers so far.

All assumed logic would tell me to back the player who's been there and done it in the unique conditions at the O2 and who's beaten today's opponent in their most recent match. And that leads me to side with Berdych.

The Czech has the advantage of being able to really hit through this court at the O2 and this match should follow a similar pattern to his win over Tipsarevic in Bercy, which took place on another nail of a court.

Tipsy's wins over the Czech have all come on quicker surfaces than this and the odds are against him opening his campaign with a win at around [2.84]. You never quite know with Tomas though and he may struggle mentally again after coming so close to beating Novak Djokovic.

I'd like to say that the evening match tonight involves no injury issues, but of course there's no chance of that, with (the injured) Djokovic taking on David Ferrer.

The world number one just about scraped through against Berdych in his opening match after facing match point, but he still has problems with his shoulder, as all the tape that's still sitting on it highlights.

Ferrer, by way of contrast, looked fresh as a daisy against a hobbled Murray in his first match, which probably means he'll have contracted food poisoning or other such ailment by 8pm this evening.

Assuming that Ferrer turns up in court able to play, he should be able to give a rusty Djokovic a decent match on this pudding of a court, but it's anyone's guess what condition the world number one will arrive in after two hours and 40 minutes against Berdych on Monday night.

This pair have met on 10 occasions in the past, with Nole holding a 6-4 lead and the Serb has won all four on hard-courts - the only exception being when Ferrer won on carpet in the year end championships in Shanghai in 2007.

They've only played each other once this year, which was on the clay of Madrid, which Novak won in a deciding set, but a lot of their previous meetings were a few years ago.

Ferrer is pretty unlikely to receive 44 unforced errors (as Murray gave him in his first match this week) from Djokovic tonight and I expect the latter to improve for his initial run-out at the O2. But the [1.34] about him prevailing gives credence to the theory that all is not quite right.

The Spaniard doesn't have the arsenal to push Djokovic back behind the baseline as Berdych did, and the world number one should win this one in straight sets at around [1.92].

Recommended Bets

Back Berdych at [1.5] and Djokovic at [1.34] in a Betfair Multiple
Back Djokovic 2-0 at [1.92]

Follow Sean on Twitter @seancalvert1

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