X-Factor Betting: This is no bear market so get against big, bad Rachel

X-Factor / Jack Houghton / 18 October 2008 / Leave a Comment

Jack Houghton takes his weekly look at the X-Factor odds as another act awaits the boot.

Sources tell me (okay, I read it in The Sun) that Alexandra has been banned from speaking by vocal coaches eager to save her voice from a devilish sore throat. If that wasn't drama enough, other sources (The Mirror) tell me Robin Gibb of Bee Gees fame has lambasted the show for emphasising presentation over genuine popstar talent.

This is not the first unprovoked and cynical attack on our favourite show this week folks. A couple of days ago Noel Gallagher was having a go, and a couple of days before that, pop-titan Steve Brookstein (winner of series one) likened the show to "bear-baiting."

Now, in my humble opinion, few things could enhance the show. But bear-baiting? There's an idea. Get a great big old grizzly on the stage and have contestants attack the bear in turn. The first to die each week would be eliminated. Harsh? Maybe; but remember, this ain't show-friends, it's show-business.

Were the show to change its format as suggested, Rachel would be odds-on to win. Few, I imagine, could match her bear-mauling skills. Except perhaps a bear. Unfortunately for her, this show rewards those with star-quality, not bear-brawling equality. So those who think she will progress beyond the first few shows are deranged. There's probably enough crap left to mean she'll survive this week, but her time is limited.

That crap is headed by Girlband. Unless finding dramatic improvement from somewhere, they look certain to fill one of the sing-off spots this week and should be backed at [1.65] in the Bottom Two Acts market. I would back them in the outright elimination market as well, but, given a choice between them and other likely go-homers Scott and Daniel, it's hard to predict how the judges will vote.

In terms of the outright market, it's already easy to put a line through half of the competitors. Only Laura, Alexandra, Austin, Diana and Eoghan are conceivable winners. The rest of them may as well apply for their cruise ship jobs in the hope they'll be in time for Christmas sailings.

Of the five possible winners, Laura's price looks too short. Yes, she was one of the better singers on debut, but that was one song, on one night, and my guess is that others will appeal more to likely voters.

According to Coleen, Wayne Rooney thinks Alexandra will win. And, she reports, he picked out the last two winners of the show, so should be listened to. It's hard to argue with that kind of track record and Alexandra is certainly good - but she doesn't look like the winner to me - and so I'll be focusing my betting on Eoghan, Diana and Austin. I'm already on the right side of cutsie-pie Eoghan and kooky-dookey Diana, so will just add ugly-wuggly Austin to the portfolio. A 1pt back at [9.2] in the Winner market.

Cheryl was underpriced in the Winning Manager market before the show started, and at [1.68] this week, she is now a stupid price. I'll probably oppose her again if that price remains, but as it's unlikely any of her acts will struggle for a few weeks, now is probably not the time.

Recommendations:
2pts back of Girlband at [1.65] in Bottom Two Acts market
1pt back of Austin at [9.2] in Winner market

Already Recommended:
1pt back of Diana at [9.4] in Winner market
1pt back of Eoghan at [14.5] in Winner market
1pt back of Simon at [3.7] in Winning Manager market