X-Factor Review: Passion and arrogance make Rachel and Ruth best bets

X-Factor / Mike Norman / 08 October 2008 / Leave a Comment

Youtube viewing figures can be useful in helping predict who will win this year's X-factor, says Mike Norman.

Saturday night television is just about to get a lot more interesting. No longer will we have to bet matchsticks on who the killer is in Miss Marple or wager our last piece of garlic bread on whether or not some washed out Family Fortunes celebrity can name something that fades (other than their career that is).

From now on we can bet sensibly, bet with real money on real talent, and along the way make a bob or two out of the no-hopers. The live X-Factor shows are here, so let the betting (and battle) commence.

As expected all the big names have reached the final, including favourite to win Alexandra Burke ([4.8]), the strongest male contestant Austin Drage ([5.3]), top tottie Laura White ([6.4]), talented teenager Diana Vickers ([9.6]), bad girl turned good Rachel Hylton ([10.5]) and easily the best of the groups JLS ([12.5]).

One of the above is very likely to win, but the one that I like at a price in the Winner market is Spanish singer Ruth Lorenzo, who can be backed at [25.0]. She was rarely shown during the audition stages and only came to prominence during the latter stages of the competition. She got some very favourable comments at Bootcamp when she performed by singing her lyrics in Spanish before singing the chorus in English. She did the same at Dannii Minougue's house and showed that she is extremely passionate and emotional. She has the potential to be really good and I think at some stage in the competition she will definitely trade at single figure prices.

A line of form that we mustn't ignore is the youtube form. Prior to the Britain's Got Talent final, the three acts who had been viewed significantly more than any other act were Signature, Andrew Johnston and George Sampson - George won, Signature came second and Andrew finished third. Youtube is now the biggest public and freely available site in the world for sharing and viewing video clips, and as it's the general public who vote for the winner of The X Factor, it's important that we keep a check on who is being viewed the most.

Right now it's Rachel Hylton who has been viewed far more than any other finalist, and at [10.5] to win she is my second selection. She was outstanding in her first audition but faltered slightly at Bootcamp and the judge's house. She will appeal incredibly to the public because of the way she has turned her life around and her arrogant and cocky attitude is likeable rather than irritating. As the show goes on she will gain more confidence and she will trade at much less than [10.5] in the coming weeks.

The other Betfair markets are intriguing and offer some real opportunities to cash in on this year's X Factor.

The most outstanding bet is JLS in the Groups market. Though not much of a price at [1.6] it's a simple case of placing your bet and waiting for the other groups to be eliminated. JLS are a fine group of soul singers who possess an abundance of talent. They are Louis Walsh's only chance of success this year so he will play it safe with them, give them songs that will suit them and songs that are impossible to mess up. The girls will like them, families will like them, and they will get a lot of votes to ensure their stay in the competition is prolonged.

The two other groups are Bad Lashes and Girlband, [3.75] and [6.2] respectively behind JLS to win the Groups category. They have the potential to be car-crash television and I don't see them being in the competition for long. In fact, you will do worse than splitting your stakes on them in the 1st Elimination market - Girlband are [3.05], Bad Lashes are [7.8].

In the Boys category, Austin Drage ([1.57]) looks the standout bet to outlast Eoghan Quigg ([3.55]) and Scott Bruton ([5.9]), while in the Girls category it looks a straight fight between Alexandra Burke ([2.28]) and Laura White ([2.38]).

Having backed Rachel and Ruth to win the show outright I don't really want to get involved in choosing between them in the 25 and Overs market, though I'd have no hesitation in laying Daniel Evans at [6.0]. Danny is no better than a club singer and it can be argued that he is only in the final because of his own personal and very emotional story that he brought to the show. For the record, Rachel is [1.83] to win this category, Ruth is [3.25] and Danny is [5.1].

Best Bets

Back Ruth Lorenzo @ [25.0] to win
Back Rachel Hylton @ [10.5] to win
Back JLS @ [1.6] in Groups market