X-Factor / Jack Houghton / 07 November 2008 /

Barack Obama may have swept to power with a message of hope but, as one time Reality TV Tipster of the Year Jack Houghton asks, what hope is left if we can't believe what Heat magazine tells us?

Barack Obama has apparently fulfilled Sam Cooke's prediction; a great change has come. The Democratic Republic of Congo is adding to the three million killed in recent civil war; the last month has seen another one million become displaced. And Daniel has ruined a teeth whitening treatment; by taking a cup of tea inside a recommended 24-hour hot drink embargo. Yes, X-Factor continues to dominate world news.

Earlier in the week, Heatworld (which I presume is related to Heat), reported Rachel's desire to sack mentor Dannii. A bunch of tabloids then jumped on Heatworld's Pulitzer contender to confirm the story. But it was no longer just desire; Rachel had indeed sacked Dannii. Fact.

Or maybe not. An official X-Factor statement has now refuted the story. My confidence in tabloid-celeb-gossip is shaken. If we can't believe what Heat and its ilk tell us, what hope is left?

And not only did they get their facts wrong, but they failed to address the pertinent point: it wouldn't matter if Rachel was mentored by Dannii, by herself, or by Yoda; she still has little chance of surviving beyond a show or two at most. Stopped she must be; on this all depends. And so we'll be opposing Rachel again. I recommend a 2pts back at [1.97] in the Bottom Two Acts market.

It was funny seeing Will Young again last week. I have a very special relationship with Will. Not in that way. On the back of tipping him at 7-2 to overturn Gareth Gates (not in that way) in a long distant Pop Idol final, I won the prestigious Reality TV Tipster Of The Year Award 2002, voted for by readers of Reality TV Weekly. But Will's gone a bit weird since those heady days, hasn't he? The way he sticks his chin out. And the way he purses his face like he's in pain down below. Perhaps he is. After a belting performance though, he did provide a reminder that talent ultimately wins through on these shows.

Which is why Daniel surely can't last too much longer. When Dermott - who has been in the news himself this week after Louis demanded an apology for repeated "camp" jibes (apparently, Louis has never even been in a tent) - announced the teeth-whitening maverick was safe, I was stunned. Nay, shocked. Nay, astounded. Who could be voting for this guy? Well, sources tell me it's the oldies. The wife works with this Daniel-deifying demographic and, it turns out, he's all they can talk about. Which is why I won't be tipping him for eviction this week. His time will come, but, it seems, not quite yet. Not if the retiree block vote has its way.

Instead I'll be turning my attention to remaining group, JLS. Now, I need to be clear on this. Much like fellow betting.betfair columnist Mike Norman (who, incidentally, has yet to win the Reality TV Tipster Of The Year Award), I'm a big fan of Jack the Lad Swing; but something deep in my loins tells me they're not safe this week. I think it must be Mariah Carey that's creating a stir down there. I just can't see them nailing one of her songs (not that I know any of her songs) and feel they might be a little vulnerable. So it's with a heavy heart that I recommend a 1pt back at [5.7] on JLS being in the bottom two this week.

In a way I hope I'm wrong. But you don't pick up prestigious punting awards by being wrong too often and, on the plus side, when JLS join Rachel in the bottom two, at least the judges are likely to save the likely lads, and dump the delusional diva. And we'll be rid of her at last.

Recommended:

2pts back of Rachel at [1.97] in Bottom Two Acts market, week five.
1pt back of JLS at [5.7] in Bottom Two Acts market, week five.

Already Recommended:

1pt back of Diana at [9.4] in Winner market.
1pt back of Eoghan at [14.5] in Winner market.
1pt back of Simon at [3.7] in Winning Manager market.
1pt back of Ruth at [2.7] in 25 and Overs market.

Already Settled:

2pts back of Girlband at [1.65] in Bottom Two Acts market, week two. (WON)
1pt back of Rachel at [2.9] in Bottom Two Acts market, week three. (LOST)
1pt back of Rachel at [3.7] in Bottom Two Acts market, week four. (WON)
4pts back of Daniel at [1.44] in Bottom Two Acts market, week four. (LOST)
1pt back of Austin at [9.2] in Winner market. (LOST)

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