X-Factor Betting: All you need to know at this stage (but were afraid to ask)

X-Factor / Jack Houghton / 11 October 2008 / Leave a Comment

Saturday afternoons are for watching racing but the evening is dedicated to X-Factor in the world of Jack Houghton. Here are his thoughts on the voting public, Leona's successor and Simon Cowell's price to be winning manager.

Pseudo-scientific X-Factor punting pronouncements already abound.

For example, one learned commentator has written that, because 15 of 17 finalists to date have been male, female contestants only have a 12 per cent chance of reaching the final three. Okay, perhaps not that learned as it turns out. Leaving aside the poor maths (I make two out of 17 to be six per cent), is it really wise to make such declarations on the basis of such limited data? After all, a female has won one out of four shows. And if you include Pop Idol and Popstars: The Rivals, six females have filled the top-spot compared to just four males.

What's more, Shayne Ward looked like a girl and Leon Jackson was always crying like a girl. The only bona-fide male winner has been Will Young. And he was gay (in fact, I think he still is). Ah, the irony.

Before 2006, everyone's favourite reality show theory revolved around the impossibility of non-white winners. You see, as well as being sexist, viewers are racist. But not homophobic? These viewers are a fickle bunch. Then Leona Lewis won. She wasn't white (and still isn't), and unless something sinister lurked beneath those bespangled outfits she wore, she wasn't male either (and, I presume, still isn't).

Here's an X-Factor pronouncement for you. On the whole, talented and likeable contestants do better than less talented and less likeable ones. So ignore all these charlatans dishing out their seemingly scholarly advice. Just because they're wearing white coats, it doesn't make them dentists. All that's needed is an arbiter of talent and likeability. And, lucky for you, I'm here to help.

The most important thing is not to get involved too heavily, too early. We will know a lot more in a few weeks, and firm assertions at this point will likely prove inaccurate.

Judge Cheryl Cole has a very strong hand to play. First, she's incredibly fit. Second, her contestants are good-looking, talented, and will cover a range of viewer tastes. But [1.97] looks short at this stage; I'll be amazed if that price doesn't drift. Of the girls Alexandra has a lot of technical ability and will belt out numbers in a Leona-esque way. Whether she's that good remains to be seen, but [4.7] looks a fair price. Laura and Diana are both kooky and match a reported ambition of the show to produce a more contemporary winner. Kooky is currently contemporary. At [9.4], Diana is worth a small, one-point bet in the Winner market.

Simon has a similarly strong hand and at [3.7] is worth a small, one-point bet in the Winning Manager market. I don't think much of ex-Bluecoat and Gordon The Gopher lookalike Scott, but Austin seems incredibly talented - if a little lacking looks-wise - and Eoghan is just such a cutie-pie. At [14.5], Eoghan's worth a one-point bet in the Winner market.

Dannii and Louis look to have no chance of winning this series. As judges, they won't be popular. Next to Sharon, Dannii was quite alluring last year. This time round, next to Cheryl, she looks like a wax mannequin about to melt under the studio lights.

Neighbouring Sharon to neighbouring Cheryl is like having to change your wingman from Stephen Hawking to Brad Pitt. To make matters worse for Dannii; outside of Shakira wannabee, Ruth, her contestants look weak. Daniel seems a nice bloke - and his dead-wife sob-story will probably buy him a few weeks - but his singing is feeble. And although I've said it's unwise to make pronouncements about what viewers like, my guess is they won't go for an unsightly jailbird loudmouth like Rachel.

Louis is annoying and does little to help his acts. And help is what they need. Bad Lashes and Girlband sounded technically deficient in their auditions and, as Hope demonstrated last year, unless all members of a group are competent singers, they quickly fail. JLS are definitely talented, but it's hard to see who will vote for them. They're about as contemporary as Boyz II Men and, although one of them is a bit of a fitster, that's unlikely to be enough to see them progress too far.

If pushed, I'd be selecting Girlband and Rachel as most likely to be eliminated tonight, but at this early stage, the percentage call is to watch and learn.

Recommendations:

1pt win on Diana at [9.4] in Winner market
1pt win on Eoghan at [14.5] in Winner market
1pt win on Simon at [3.7] in Winning Manager market