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X Factor Betting: the Final Elimination

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The Same Difference 'sibling love train' will surely hit the buffers this week say Reality TV betting experts Chickendinner...

One last show, and then Same Difference, [1.69] to be first to go on Betfair, should disappear from sight. No more implausible expressions of shock from the marginally more manly of the siblings, no more tearful tales of how bullies almost ruined her life from the other one.

This week they will be butchering All I Want for Christmas is You and singing a secret song with Donovan (that's Jason, not the hippy). No duo has ever gone further than third (the silent killers of Journey South), yet the mystery of the public phone vote has kept them alive well beyond their sell-by date. Their position as favourites-to-go could also reflect a dislike of the act rather than their ability to progress, which shouldn't be underestimated given that they have placed themselves utterly in the hands of master manipulator Cowell. He in turn has sent them out with instructions to talk up the bullying and other tricks to earn the public's sympathy. It's just impossible to tell what might happen with them.

Leon, [2.8] to go, needs to stop moaning about his life before the show - which looked to be entirely normal - and he also needs to stop thanking the judges for their insults after every fear-stricken performance. He has his share of the voting public, thanks to his constant weeping and his bumbling devotion to his mum. Now fashioned as Mister Swing [like last year's runner-up Ray, only better], he would be the most likely to sweep up the floating votes from hormonal fans who had a thing for Daniel/Futureproof/Welsh Asbestos bloke. Playing up the vulnerable teenager who loves his mum could even see him win the whole thing if he strikes the right chord.

With none of the acts yet to feature in the final two, and the results of the phone vote unknown, Rhydian, [12.5] to go, might yet prove to be a judges' favourite who is less popular with the public. This week he is doing 'O Holy Night' and 'Somewhere', both songs which younger viewers will find shriekingly dull. All the winners so far (Steve, Shayne, Leona) have had pop credentials, while the more old fashioned novelty acts [G4, series one; Andy, series two] have scraped in second. If it's contemporary they want, one of the other two will win.