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X Factor betting: predicting the top three

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Chickendinner knows exactly who is going to win... kind of

From now on the judges can only have an impact through their comments, with the elimination of the "bottom two" system and the 'voting public' solely responsible for who stays and who goes. While Rhydian [1.3] to win on Betfair might be the Betfair customers' favourite, it is possible he is not the biggest voting magnet. As things stand, no one knows who is taking up the lion's share of the votes, as Rhydian, Leon, Niki and Same Difference have never been in the bottom two.

Two to keep a big eye on are Niki [9.2] and Leon [10.5].

Niki has suffered on silly theme nights like Disco Week and Big Band Week, because she is clearly a soaring ballad kind of girl. As the fads disappear (and Simon Cowell apparently slammed the brakes on anything unusual after the disco fiasco), she might just come into her own, with her stock being the likes of Whitney and Bonnie Tyler. Working mums and furious divorcees will see her as some kind of saviour - a downtrodden mum/dinner lady living the dream. Plus her voice is good enough to secure some serious Radio Two action after the show.

The Radio One audience, however, must surely be more inclined to the steamier contestants, like Hope and Leon. Sex appeal is all-important to the teenage voting bracket, and Rhydian is too weird to ever plough his way around Stringfellows, while Leon has Bianca Gascoigne written all over him. Hope, of course, will become regulars at clubs frequented by footballers and old soap stars any day now.

Should there be a big upset Leon will provide it. No one expected Gareth Gates to lose Pop Idol having been the big favourite from the beginning, but Will Young pipped it. Which could mean that anyone not inclined to vote for the operatic Welshman could find themselves desperately pressing redial in favour of the young Scot - growing in confidence and rising into contention with each week, don't count against him.

Hope [38.0] have surely been in the bottom two far too many times to mount a surprise attack. Only Chico survived more (went on the fourth go). As the other girls become increasingly glum playing second fiddle to the main one (Phoebe) it could all go hideously wrong - especially if they decide to split the vocals between them, which must be on the cards for next week.

Same Difference [16.0] This week they sang a love song to one another, which was disturbing AND upsetting, so surely they can't be picking up votes from eliminated contestants, which means, if there is any justice, they cannot win. Unless their fan base is already massive enough, which is too horrifying to contemplate.

The Chicken Dinner theory is that this year is repeating the pattern from last year, so Hope should go next week - being closest in type to Eton Road who went at this stage in 2006.

The top three should read: Rhydian, Leon and Niki.

To view Niki in action, click here