X Factor Betting: Cowell might know a lot about value, but the best bet is Louis

X-Factor / Mike Norman / 10 September 2008 / 2 Comments

Does he know something we don't? Probably not, according to Mike Norman, it's just that he always has that look on his face. Here's how you can profit from the X Factor this year (though, admittedly, you won't make as much as Simon).

The X Factor is in full swing now and it won't be long before the live shows are upon us, meaning a wide range of Betfair markets to get our teeth stuck into. In the meantime, the first market to appear on Betfair is the 'Winning Manager' market, and though much depends on which category each manager gets assigned as to who will win; it's worth our while running the rule over our four determined judges.

Cheryl Cole - [3.4]

The Girls Aloud singer is making her first appearance on The X Factor and has immediately been installed as the favourite to win. She is one of those people that you either hate or detest and her lofty position in the market can only be put down to people thinking she is going to hit it off with one of the contestants - and judging by the audition shows to date, that's not as daft as it first seems.

Her fake flirting is ridiculous however. It's like she is trying to get back at husband Ashley through the television - though what she fails to realise is that her hubby has far more exciting things to do on a Saturday evening than watch The X Factor. And I'm not just talking about scoring on a football pitch!

She obviously has a chance of becoming the winning manager but much depends on which category she gets given. If she gets the 'boys' (which is very likely considering it will be a ratings winner) then her chance improves considerably - any other category will harm her chances.

Simon Cowell - [3.5]

Series 1: 1st (Steve Brookstein), Series 2: 3rd (Journey South), Series 3: 1st (Leona Lewis) & 2nd (Ray Quinn), Series 4: 3rd (Same Difference)

He has been called rude, arrogant, smug, vain and mean - and that's from the people that like him! But Simon Cowell cares little for what people think, insisting that telling the truth (however blunt it may be) is the only way he can work. He maintains that when he tells someone that they have the worst voice in the world, what he is really saying is that they will never make it as a singer - which is a bit like telling your fit girlfriend that she is crap in bed just because you don't want her to become a porn star.

Cowell is the Sir Alex Ferguson of the pop world - right at the top of his game and brilliant at mind games. You can rest assured that whichever category Simon gets, the three acts that make it to the live TV stages will be in with a great chance of winning The X Factor. He is likely to miss out on getting the 'girls' however, which makes for gripping television as he demonstrates his high testosterone levels on newcomer Cheryl (much to the disappointment of Dannii, may I add).

Dannii Minogue - [3.95]

Series 4: 1st (Leon Jackson) & 2nd (Rhydian Roberts)

Dannii is the defending champion and deserves enormous credit for getting someone that wouldn't even place in my local pub's karaoke final to win Britain's biggest singing competition.

She looked a bit overawed at times last year, especially in the presence of the empowering Sharon Osbourne, but will be brimming with confidence this year now that she is the senior member of the female judges. Her downfall, though, will be that she probably won't get the 'boys' category to manage this series, and with her having no experience of 'groups' (singing groups that is) and unlikely to bond with the 'girls' (it's a woman thing), then her chances of success look slim this time around - especially if she gets assigned the 25-and-overs category, which doesn't look strong at this stage.

Louis Walsh - [5.2]

Series 1: 2nd (G4), Series 2: 1st (Shayne Ward), Series 3: 4th (The Macdonald Brothers), Series 4: 4th (Niki Evans)

Louis is brilliant in his role as the judge that cops a lot of abuse from Simon but replies only with half-hearted insults. You get the feeling that he doesn't want to upset anyone but instead just wants to cuddle people, especially the males (because of his success with them, of course).

Having created such groups as Westlife and Boyzone, and managed Ronan Keating through his solo career, you have to say that Louis is well up to winning this year's series if he gets the category of 'boys' or 'groups' to manage. He has had the groups twice before, however, so probably won't get them; and I'm confident Cheryl will get the boys. As Louis got the 25-and-overs last year he probably won't get them either, which just leaves the 'girls' - and though his success with the girls is hardly a well documented part of his life, that category is looking quite strong right now.

Prediction

Whether the producers think putting Cheryl with the 'boys' will be a ratings winner or not, all the permutations point to Louis getting the nod to manage the 'girls' just ahead of Simon. Therefore backing Louis now at [5.2] is an excellent back-to-lay opportunity.

Comments (2)

1. SheefsTebydubbill | 31 December 2008

   hello it is test. WinRAR provides the full RAR and ZIP file support, can decompress CAB, GZIP, ACE and other archive formats.
   mzxbmrmficnpwtisgkkcrtcjwocycyibihdhello

2. Evencelayendy | 25 September 2011

   You are not similar to the expert :)