Betfair Official Blog

X Factor betting: could Rhydian's lack of raunch count against him?

Leon's coming up fast and could catch the Welsh warbler, say Chickendinner...

If it comes down to a battle of Scotland vs Wales vs England, then England's Niki might have to pack her bags. While evidence of a hardcore Welsh or Scottish vote is hard to come by, someone was providing the wretched MacDonald brothers with prolonged life support - Leon is much better than they were - and with Rhydian strolling it, the final could well be a non-English affair. Call it a hunch.

Leon [5.2] to win is really building up a head of steam in the competition. He has stopped visibly shaking, his performances no longer resemble someone ordered to sing at knifepoint, and the judges are starting to lavish him with praise. Should he continue to improve, this year might yet spring an upset.

Although all the series so far have produced an early favourite who has gone on to win (Steve, series one; Shayne, series two; Leona, series three), if you hark back to the heady days of Pop Idol, Gareth Gates (the favourite) was ousted by Will Young in the latter stages of the show. Hence Rhydian's early peak could yet work against him - he hasn't done anything to improve on his magnificent week two rendition of Phantom of The Opera - and Leon might move further to the front.

Also working against Rhydian [1.58] is his niche appeal - Radio One listeners will be turned off by his cheesy cover versions of Westlife songs and West End classics, and his massive lack of sex appeal means that hormonal teenagers will be looking for someone a little more steamy, conventional and outwardly straight to vote for (i.e. Leon).

All the while, Same Difference [15.5] are surely on borrowed time - their weekend performances were revolting - and Niki [9.4] is solid but unspectacular. A magnificent singer from the start, but her consistency has made her boring, and without a 'journey' to speak of, she's surely not picking up votes from the eliminated acts. It would take something extraordinary for her to close the gap. A good place to start would be with a bit of Whitney Houston. She needs to prove her worth.

Next week's guest is Canadian pop crooner Michael Buble (Leon's hero, so a possible advantage there) and the contestants are picking their own songs, so check song choices on Friday for potential gun-to-foot selections.

Watch a video of Leon's episode 16 performance here