X-Factor / Jack Houghton / 09 October 2009 / Leave a comment

Simon's chosen badly and Walsh is a no-hoper which leaves the girls as likely top managers... Jack Houghton has the early take on this year's X Factor betting landscape

"If I had to pick a winner at this stage, it would likely be Stacey, but [5.8] looks plenty short enough and, anyway, it’s difficult to make too many pronouncements until you’ve seen them all perform live."

That blinkin' Mike Norman robbed me last year. I was on fire. I'd tipped up Eoghan and Diana at big prices early on, and had cruised through to the final stages with the two undoubted favourites in my camp - only to be nabbed by a resurgent Alexandra late on. If only I'd listened to Mikey Boy.

Now, I'm not one to make wild and slanderous claims, but let me tell you something about this Norman character. His partner was called Mabel - Mabel Carter. Mabel Carter is the brother of Mark, the best-man to James Andrews. James Andrews has a sister called Bella, whose boyfriends' mum is best-friends with Babs Cowell. Recognise the surname? I'm not suggesting anything funny went on - after all, I have no proof - but let's just say that I - East Anglian Reality Show Tipster of the year four years' running - was amazed to be out-tipped by a newbie like Normsky, and now I believe I know the reason why.

Enough of the acrimony though. My Exocet-trained betting brain needs to be focused on the task at hand; not embroiled with past bitterness. So, Mike, no hard feelings, huh? I was sorry to hear Mabel had left you; but at least now it's just you and me, mano-a-mano, tipster-to-tipster, bare-knuckle brawling our betting way all the way to Christmas Number One. May the best man win.

I've spent much time reflecting on last year's competition, to get a sense of the soul surrounding this year's edition. Some things are different; much is the same.

The contestants are - as usual - young, vibrant, and eclectic; but the field feels deeper of talent this year. The judges and their minions are as ridiculously dressed as usual; but Dannii and Cheryl seem to be getting on better. A new computer (a birthday present from Vidal Sassoon) sits beneath my tip-tapping fingers; but still there is an insistence that Cowell is spelt Cowbell. Mr. Cowbell it is.

And, in fairness, I wouldn't want it to change much more than this - save for them getting rid of the nonsensical, roller-skate-loving, Brian "Prima Donna" Friedman - but I'm not that lucky. So, no doubt, he'll be choreographing as usual, looking camp, demure, and dissatisfied all-at-once as his latest protégé fails to execute a dancing routine to his exacting standards.

Cowbell picked his last three poorly. It must have been the LA heat; or the distraction of that leaf arrangement of Sinitta's. Leaving out the most talented singer of Boot Camp - Treyc Cohen - he instead picked the annoying and arrogant Jamie, who has already complained that X Factor stylists have ruined his afro. Danyl and Olly have potential, but his group doesn't look strong enough to warrant a Winning Judge market price of [2.4].

Louis stands no chance. Stripping background aside, Kandy Rain hold little interest; John and Edward - whilst likely amusingly annoying for a few weeks - won't win; and Miss Frank will fail to impress the X Factor viewer demographic, who repeatedly go for clean-cut middle-of-the-road performers.

That leaves Cheryl and Dannii who, between them, surely hold the winner in their malnourished hands. With the exception of ferret-like Rikki (who seemed a strange choice when better singers, and better lookers, were available to Cheryl in her final six) the other five all look talented, likeable and possible winners. I'm having a one point back of both Cheryl ([8.0]) and Dannii ([2.48]) in the Winning Judge market.

If I had to pick a winner at this stage, it would likely be Stacey, but [5.8] looks plenty short enough and, anyway, it's difficult to make too many pronouncements until you've seen them all perform live. (Although, in a way, I've made plenty of pronouncements already). Two who look incredible value though are Joseph ([12.0)] and Lloyd ([25.0]); and I can't resist a one point bet on each.

Betting on the first week elimination market is difficult at this stage. Kandy Rain are most likely to go, but the prices available offer no value. And John and Edward are likely too short (their hair helps though) at [2.84], as the viewing public will keep them in for the annoyance factor (the A Factor; a new show I'm launching in the spring). All-in-all, it's a market to avoid until Show Two.

Bon chance Mike Norman. The lines are now drawn. I'll see you in the audience for the final show. Call Mabel. She'd love to come. And sometimes all it takes is a phone call...

Recommendations:
1 pt BACK Dannii at [2.48] in Winning Judge market.
1 pt BACK Cheryl at [8.0] in Winning Judge market.
1 pt BACK Joseph at [12.0] in Winner market.
1 pt BACK Lloyd at [25.0] in Winner market.

Tags: Cheryl Cole, Dannii Minogue, Louis Walsh, Simon Cowell, X-Factor