X-Factor / Jack Houghton / 12 November 2011 /

During The X Factor last year, betting.betfair tipster Jack Houghton turned a starting bank of £1,000 into a whopping £1,900. Two years previously he returned a 17-point profit to anyone following his recommended bets. A brace of profitable years in hand, get involved as he goes for number three.

What if they planned it all? What if they found this young guy, who was up for an experience of a lifetime, and said to him, "Come on the show. We'll auto-tune you through auditions, get you on the live shows, create a big old brouhaha about your weekly antics, and then controversially throw you out of the competition for reasons we will only, very unsubtly, hint at"?

And what if they had simultaneously prepared a young woman to be controversially eliminated on a judging whim, only to return later to win the show? Wouldn't that have been amazing?

It's a shame it's not true. The reality is that Frankie has let everyone down: Barlow, the show's producers, fellow contestants, the voting public, and, most importantly, all of those young people who mistakenly viewed him as a role model. The X Factor is a bastion of ethical excellence and moral purpose Frankie, and you've tarnished it. You should be ashamed of yourself.

Still, it won't hurt the ratings, eh?

For anyone who has had their heads buried this week in the frivolous and nugatory news of debt crises, Middle-Eastern violence and military spending cuts, you've missed the reality-show news of the year - Frankie's been kicked off the X Factor. He will be replaced by one of the four contestants who were eliminated in the first week. On Thursday, a public vote opened on who should be reinstated out of Jonjo Kerr, 2 Shoes, Amelia Lily and James Michael, the result to be announced at 8.15pm on the ITV1 show.

Now, surely, Amelia Lily will win that vote. But then, can anything be predicted with certainty this year? The public votes have seemed to defy all logic, and they've certainly defied all attempts to forecast their outcome. Poor old Mike - I haven't seen him looking this perplexed since he was challenged to unclasp a front-fastened bra with his left hand. Still, he's surviving, and if Janet or Craig can win the thing, he'll turn a fair profit.

My record so far this year has certainly been more erratic, evidenced by a massive outlay on two acts who promptly got themselves eliminated last week. The portfolio still looks solid, though. With decent bets on three of the first four in the outright betting, there's still every chance of coming out ahead. To firm up that portfolio, I'm going back in on Marcus Collins ([4.2]) this week, who has consistently proved himself the best performer in this year's competition.

In the elimination markets this week, I expect Janet and Misha to be vulnerable again, but it's not clear how the reinstated act is going to be handled in the Bottom Two market, so a watching brief is probably advisable.

Something that is more certain is Kitty Brucknell's unpopularity. Whilst the Lady Gaga versus Queen theme will likely suit her, she's been at the bottom end of the voting in half of the shows where the public has had their say, so at [2.26] in the 10th Elimination market, she's worth a few quid.

This week's recommendations:
4pts Back Marcus Collins at [4.2] in Winner market.
2pts Back Kitty Brucknell at [2.26] in 10th Elimination market.

Previously recommended:
5pts Back The Risk at [1.5] in Groups market - LOST.
5pts Back Johnny Robinson at [1.5] in Over 25s market - LOST.
3pts Back Kitty Brucknell at [1.5] in Bottom Three market - WON.
1pt Back Misha Bryan at [3.7] in Bottom Three market - LOST.
1pt Back Janet Devlin at [7.4] in Bottom Three market - UNMATCHED.
3pts Back Frankie Cocozza at [1.74] in Bottom Two market - LOST.
1pt Back Frankie Cocozza at [3.8] in Bottom Two market - LOST.
2pts Back Nu Vibe at [2.32] in Bottom Two market - WON.
2pts Back The Risk at [22.0] in Winner market - LOST.
1pt Back Marcus Collins at [17.5] in Winner market - OPEN.
3pts Lay Misha Bryan at [1.81] in Top 3 market - OPEN.
3pts Back Amelia Lily at [5.8] in Winner market - OPEN.
2pts Back Craig Colton at [17.0] in Winner market - OPEN.
2pts Back James Michael at [28.0] in Winner market - OPEN.

Settled bets:
22pts staked; 9.14pts returned; -12.86pts overall.

Star Predictor

You've read Jack's thoughts, but what does the Betfair market say? For the latest odds on the winner market and the next elimination, check out our X-Factor Star Predictor...

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