X-Factor / Jack Houghton / 25 November 2011 /

During The X Factor last year, betting.betfair tipster Jack Houghton turned a starting bank of £1,000 into a whopping £1,900. Two years previously he returned a 17-point profit to anyone following his recommended bets. A brace of profitable years in hand, get involved as he goes for number three.

We watch to be able to talk.

We talk knowingly to work colleagues about contestant stage presence. We talk assuredly to loved ones about mis-pitched harmonies. We talk to friends about the fix of it all; as we chink, drink, and pretend our insight is more than just rehashed tabloid gossip. We talk from different standpoints: as fans; as impassive viewers; as cynics. Every week, nearly half of the viewing public watch this bloated and overblown seaside talent contest. Then we talk about it. And, in my case, write about it.

And for all the annoyances the latest incarnation of the X Factor has brought - most notably the increasingly ludicrous editing of contestant stories, which would feel like manipulation if they weren't all so ridiculous - it nonetheless remains compelling viewing: if only because this series has proved so unpredictable that even some X Factor apostles have turned conspiracy theorist.

Not this apostle though. In a world divest of light, and devoid of hope, the X Factor has always been - and will always remain - a beacon of ethical broadcasting; a pathfinder for democracy; an inspiration to all the disenfranchised and oppressed citizens of the world; a vision of how society should, and could, work; the Cleisthenes of its day.

It saddened me, therefore, to see that the unelected, dictatorial buttinskies at Ofcom had seen fit to further sully the reputation of this great media institution by investigating Tulisa's trademark forearm salute, which she delivers at the start of each show, displaying the tattooed monogram, The Female Boss. Having recently launched a perfume of the same name, the salute, it is argued, might breach broadcasting rules, "on the promotion and reference of commercial products by talent."

Now I'm no lawyer, but it would seem straightforward enough to repudiate the charge. The word to focus on, surely, is "talent".

It doesn't stop with tattoos of course. Rihanna, as promised last week, fired up the X Factor newsroom by wearing some shoes with curse words emblazoned on them. Tattoos and taboo. What odds next week Ofcom to accrue a slew of abuse for an overdue hullabaloo about a misconstrued kangaroo and caribou?

If only Betfair offered a market on it. Anyhoo - to the betting. Back in 2009 we reported the scientifically verified disadvantage of singing first and, with Craig the latest first-up victim, I was glad to have advised getting out of our bet on him in the outright market (for a guaranteed profit). With all acts singing at least twice in each show from here on in, billing prominence now becomes less of a concern, and we can simply focus on who the most likeable, talented singers are.

New favourites Little Mix (nee Rythmix) ([3.05]) are certainly likeable, but I still struggle to see them overcoming the solo singers in the talent stakes, and am relatively happy not to have them in my portfolio. Marcus Collins ([3.55]) still looks the standout contestant, and Amelia Lily is surely better placed to win it than her bottom two berth suggested last week.

In this week's markets, it's hard to get involved too heavily. I think Mike Norman might be on to something in recommending Misha B for the elimination, but have a suspicion the judges might save her in any vote. For that reason I will stick with the strategy of having a few small bets in the Bottom Two Combo market, predicting any two of Misha, Janet and Little Mix to find themselves in the sing-off.

This week's recommendations:
1pt Back Misha/Rhythmix at [15.0] in Bottom Two Combo market.
1pt Back Misha/Janet at [5.3] in Bottom Two Combo market.
1pt Back Janet/Rhythmix at [32.0] in Bottom Two Combo market.

Previously recommended:
5pts Lay Craig Colton at [7.4] in Winner market - WON.
1pt Back Misha/Rhythmix at [4.0] in Bottom Two Combo market - LOST.
1pt Back Misha/Janet at [7.0] in Bottom Two Combo market - LOST.
1pt Back Janet/Rhythmix at [18.0] in Bottom Two Combo market - LOST.
2pts Back Kitty Brucknell at [2.26] in 10th Elimination market - WON.
2pts Back James Michael at [28.0] in Winner market - LOST.
5pts Back The Risk at [1.5] in Groups market - LOST.
5pts Back Johnny Robinson at [1.5] in Over 25s market - LOST.
3pts Back Kitty Brucknell at [1.5] in Bottom Three market - WON.
1pt Back Misha Bryan at [3.7] in Bottom Three market - LOST.
1pt Back Janet Devlin at [7.4] in Bottom Three market - UNMATCHED.
3pts Back Frankie Cocozza at [1.74] in Bottom Two market - LOST.
1pt Back Frankie Cocozza at [3.8] in Bottom Two market - LOST.
2pts Back Nu Vibe at [2.32] in Bottom Two market - WON.
2pts Back The Risk at [22.0] in Winner market - LOST.
2pts Back Craig Colton at [17.0] in Winner market - LOST.
1pt Back Marcus Collins at [17.5] in Winner market - OPEN.
3pts Lay Misha Bryan at [1.81] in Top 3 market - OPEN.
3pts Back Amelia Lily at [5.8] in Winner market - OPEN.
4pts Back Marcus Collins at [4.2] in Winner market - OPEN.
3pts Back Amelia Lily at [4.5] in Winner market - OPEN.
3pts Back Marcus Collins at [4.2] in Winner market - OPEN.

Settled bets:
24pts staked and lost; 11.66pts won; -12.34pts overall.

Star Predictor

You've read Jack's thoughts, but what does the Betfair market say? For the latest odds on the winner market and the next elimination, check out our X-Factor Star Predictor...

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