X Factor 2010 Betting: The early opportunities...

X-Factor / Mike Norman / 22 August 2010 / 2 Comments

X Factor mentor Cheryl Cole is hoping to have the winning act for the third year in succession

"Cheryl Cole has a 100% record in this market having mentored Burke and McElderry to their victories, and her chances of making it three wins in a row will only be seriously dented if she is allocated the Groups category."

The X Factor is back to dominate our Saturday nights, and our regular reviewer Mike Norman will be here for the whole hog. Today he takes a look at a few of the markets involving the four mentors.

Over the next four months Britain will once again be gripped by X Factor fever as tens of thousands of pop star wannabes battle it out to become the next 'big thing' in the music industry.

Now in its seventh series, The X Factor has grown into ITV's flagship Saturday night show with viewing figures rising form an average of 6.92 million in 2004 to an astonishing 13.31 million last year. The 2009 final - in which likeable Geordie Joe McElderry triumphed - peaked at 19.7 million viewers with over 10 million telephone votes being cast. The show was the first in over 30 years (subsequently joined by Britain's Got Talent) to regularly attract more viewers than Coronation Street.

But despite the success of The X Factor as a show, some of its winners haven't gone on to be anywhere near as successful. Steve Brookstein, Shayne Ward and Leon Jackson have all had very limited success in the UK, whilst it remains to be seen how popular McElderry will be when his debut album is released in October of this year.

Ironically then, the only two winners I've picked - Leona Lewis and Alexandra Burke - have gone on to be a huge success. I say ironic, because when it comes to spotting real talent I like to think that I'm the man for the job, and that my pesky colleague Jack Houghton - who I'll be in direct competition with when the live shows are upon us - is merely an irritant who gets lucky from time to time.

As the series progresses, myself and Jack will go head-to-head in all the markets available on Betfair, but for now, let's have a look at how you can make a profit from the few markets that are currently available.

Winning Mentor

Much depends on which mentor gets which category as to who will triumph in this market, but without knowing that information for at least six weeks you can do much worse than back Cheryl Cole to land the hat-trick at odds of [4.2].

Cole has a 100% record in this market having mentored Burke and McElderry to their victories, and her chances of making it three wins in a row will only be seriously dented if she is allocated the Groups category. The Groups are the only category not to have won a series of the X Factor despite being mentored by Louis Walsh - who is regarded as an expert in that area - on four previous occasions.

Walsh himself is available to back at [4.2], and as a previous winning mentor he isn't completely ruled out with the assumption that he is very unlikely to be given the Groups this year.

As alluded to earlier, having a wager in this market at this stage is a bit like betting blind which is why I couldn't back Simon Cowell at [3.0] or Dannii Minogue at just [3.2]. If you are interested in backing either of these two mentors however, then why not leave up a request at bigger odds - I'm sure you will get matched at, or in excess of, [4.0] before too long.

First Mentor Eliminated

Not a market to get involved in too much at this stage, as even more so than the Winning Mentor market the outcome of this market depends hugely on who gets who.

There is one trend I can point you to however; this being that the mentor in charge of the Groups has been eliminated first on three of the six occasions to date. Trying to work out who will be allocated the Groups could be the key here then, and for what it's worth I think that unlucky person will be Dannii Minogue - available to back at [2.8]. Minogue has mentored each of the other three categories previously and surely it's time for her to mentor the category that nobody wants.

Of the others, Walsh has been the first eliminated twice before - both times when mentoring the Groups incidentally - and he is the [2.72] favourite in this particular market.

Comments (2)

1. Ellen | 22 August 2010

   Shayne Ward UK album sales = two platinum albums, total UK album sales 1 million. Singles sales approx 1.7 million.

   Alex Burke UK album sales 640,000 with 1 album, 1.8 million singles.

   Not much difference is there. In addition Shayne has completed 2 solo arena tours (Alex has yet to tour).

   If you're offering betting advice I should check your facts are reliable first.

2. Mike | 23 August 2010

   Thanks for your comment Ellen. You may be correct with your stats (I didn't quote any facts about Shayne Ward incidentally) but what you failed to point out is that those sales were over three years ago. Where is he now?

   He won X Factor in 2005 and his initial succes came within his first two years. Now his third album has been due to be released for over a year but it hasn't materialised. He was even dropped by his manager Louis Walsh. What does that tell you about how popular Shayne Ward is?

   Every winner of the X Factor will have initial success because of how popular the show makes them, and the fact that they get to release a single almost immediately.

   But after that you're on your own - your success will be determined by the quality you produce. Alexandra Burke has been around for less than two years yet she has sold more singles in the UK than Ward has in five years.

   So I stand by my original comment that Ward has had limited success in the UK. Yes, a few decent albums and some hit singles in his first few years. But in the last three years... nothing.