The Contrarian: Why Cheryl Cole won't win the X Factor

X-Factor / The Betfair Contrarian / 01 October 2008 / Leave a comment

The Betfair markets might tell you that Cheryl Cole is the judge to beat in this year's X Factor [she's at [2.8] to win], but they're wrong, says the Contrarian.

There's not much gets past The Contrarian in reality betting, where one of the golden rules is that early favourites rarely win. Even in the final last year Rhydian looked to have it nailed on, but The Contrarian knew Leon would be leaving on his fans' shoulders as soon as he sang with Kylie.

Cheryl, who has the under-25 girls to look after, might think she's big and clever when she's standing up to Simon Cowell, but we all remember what happened to the last lady judge who tried that - Sharon Osborne never won the show and was bundled out of the back door in a humiliating rage. Here are some more reasons why it's already curtains for Cole:

ITV voters prefer men

The final show always features three acts. In four years of finals, there has been one group (G4), two duos (Journey South and Same Difference) and nine solo artistes, making a total of seventeen individuals. Of those seventeen, fifteen have been male, (the only girls were Leona, series three and Sarah Smith of Same Difference, series four). That record leaves Cheryl with just an 11.7 per cent chance of even making the top three.

She has the least successful group of finalists

With the exception of Leona Lewis, female singers under 25 have enjoyed the least success of any of the four categories of performer (girls under 25, boys under 25, groups and over 25s). A group has made it to the final three times (G4, runners up, series one; Journey South, third, series two; Same Difference, third, series four), at least one under-25 male has been to the final in every series (Tabby, third, series one; Shayne, winner, series two; Ray, runner up, series three; Leon, winner, series four; Rhydian, runner up, series four), and an over-25 has been singing in three of four (Steve, winner, series one; Andy, runner up, series two; Ben, third, series three). Without Leona's thrilling series three victory, not one singing girl has made it past week five.

Simon is the headline act

The show revolves around Simon saying the unsayable, which makes him the most popular judge with the voters. Last year, his final act, Same Difference, was appalling, and yet he took them to the live final. He took the crown in series one, then again in series three. On the two occasions that he didn't come away victorious, he was handling the groups. This year, he's back to the solo artists, and he's insanely competitive.

Three judges, one spot

In the last two series, Simon has been up against just one other judge and their act/acts in the live final (Sharon with Ben, series three; Dannii with Leon and Rhydian, series four). So, assuming Simon makes it to the final again, that means three judges could well be scrambling for one spot. That gives Cheryl just a 33.3 per cent chance of making it to the final.

The winner probably hasn't been seen yet

Don't expect to have seen too much of the winner yet. In shows gone by, footage of the eventual victor has tended to be minimal until the live shows. Leona Lewis certainly appeared to come from nowhere, having enjoyed little airtime - the producers obviously like keeping the strongest singers a secret. Hence, Cheryl could easily come unstuck, with a strong line up of young female singers chomping their way through the highlights shows. We can assume, then, that the former crack addict, the Amy Winehouse impersonator from Bolton, and the one who once made it all the way to Louis' house all won't win. Too familiar.