The Betfair Contrarian: Why Joe McElderry won't win The X Factor

X-Factor / The Betfair Contrarian / 02 December 2009 / Leave a Comment

Will Joe be smiling in the final?

"The Contrarian's highly-trusted sources claim that this series has been unlike any other in terms of the weeks best performer winning the public vote. There has been less favourite-clinging or being swayed by the judges than usual, meaning that the vote-leader has changed on a near weekly basis depending on who has delivered the best performance."

After bringing the judges to their feet last week with his rendition of Sorry Seems to Be the Hardest Word, Geordie Joe (although our north-east expert claims that Joe's South Shields address makes him a sand dancer not a Geordie) is just [1.73] on Betfair to win a guaranteed pass to the Christmas number one slot. But has he become too good, too soon? The Contrarian thinks so...

You can never trust the reality market
The odds rarely tell the full story when it comes to The X Factor. Two years ago, it was widely accepted that Welsh warbler Rhydian was unstoppable. He went into the final at [1.29] on Betfair with Leon Jackson a [4.7] outsider even longer than the dreadful Same Difference and yet wee Leon surprised everyone to triumph. Last year, Alexandra went into the final as favourite but as late as the final-five stage she was [5.3] third favourite behind Diana (who finished fourth) and Eoghan (third). At that point, eventual runners-up JLS were a hefty [11.5].

The public have been voting on performance
The Contrarian's highly-trusted sources claim that this series has been unlike any other in terms of the weeks best performer winning the public vote. There has been less favourite-clinging or being swayed by the judges than usual, meaning that the vote-leader has changed on a near weekly basis depending on who has delivered the best performance. Of course, that means that Joe is on top now but there have also been recent instances where Olly and Stacey have led the way.

Joe may have peaked too soon
The problem Joe will now encounter after giving one of the performances of the series last week is that the others have room for improvement whereas he will struggle to raise the bar. And its a fairly safe bet that the slightest mistake will be seized upon by the judges in an attempt to create more tension, as while he has never been in the bottom two, unlike Danyl ([9.8]) and Olly ([8.6]), his fans may feel they don't need to bother picking up the phone. Eoghan led the vote in the first five shows last year before finishing third while Rhydian also paid the price for being seen as a champion-in-waiting.

Stacey has a gender advantage...
Four of the first five acts eliminated this series were either solo women or girl groups, giving Stacey [4.7] the benefit of being the last lady standing. In last years final, Alexandra was the only girl and won despite trailing JLS in the semi-finals, perhaps because she picked up voters who until the semi-final stage had been rooting for Diana. In series three, five of the final six acts were male, with Leona Lewis the one remaining female, and yet she was able to outlast all of them, including the hugely popular Ray Quinn, who has since won Dancing on Ice.

...and Dannii could change everything in the final
Another major reason why Leon pipped Rhydian in series four was that he produced the final's most memorable performance. In the celebrity round he duetted with Kylie Minogue, whose fame provided a much bigger vote boost than Katherine Jenkins did to Rhydian or Jason Donovan did to Same Difference. The singer with the biggest co-star also triumphed last year, as Alexandra Burke doubled up with Beyonce. Dannii Minogue was the judge who engineered Leon's surprise win two years ago so could have another trick up her sleeve to help Stacey this year.

No judge has won consecutive series
Cheryl Cole was victorious on her debut last year but no judge has ever won twice in a row and following Lloyd's elimination last week, Joe is her only remaining act. In fact, no reigning champion has even got an act into the top two the following year.