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...is just one of the six commandments of X-Factor betting according to gambling gunslingers Chicken Dinner

Saturday night's show was the first to showcase the ability of the final 12 to sing live. With 11 runners left, here's how to narrow the field.

Find a familiar face

These people didn't just realise they were blessed with syrupy voices and great hair - they've been pushed from an early age by their maladjusted families, and this is just another phase of their ambitious plan. Shayne Ward (winner of series two) had also made it to the final thirty in Popstars: The Rivals. Leona Lewis (winner last year) had cut a record (with producer, Marley J. Wills), and Steve Brookstein (winner in 2004) left a revolting smudge on the brain as a runner-up on the Big Big Talent show. Of this year's rabble, Daniel DeBourg has already crooned with America's second favourite singing pervert, R Kelly.

Don't bet on the pretty one, unless it's a boy

Leona's bad posture and spectacular beak helped her to win last year, but she was the first 16-24 girl to ever make it to the final five. This is bad news for beautiful Alisha.

The fact that the winner has never featured in the bottom two at any point during the series also counts against Alisha, who was in the bottom two at the weekend.

The boys, on the other hand, can take it steady. Every series has featured a crooning manchild in the final three - Ray (runner-up, last year), Shayne (winner, 2005) and Tabby (third, 2004).

That's great news for Leon, if he can just stop weeping at the thought of his single-parent childhood; gigantic-eyebrowed Andy, and Rhydian - the surely home-schooled operatic egomaniac who looked like Dolph Lundgren playing Liberace on Saturday.

Bottom two means 'out'

The general rule for persistent bottom two-ers is three strikes and out (Voices With Soul, series one; The Conway Sisters, series two; Robert, series three). The one exception is series two's goat-herder-come-male-prostitute Chico, who finally got hurled in the direction of Butlins on the nation's fourth attempt to get rid of him.

However, the saved contestant has only been evicted the following week twice in the last two years (The Conway Sisters, series two; Eton Road, last year), and four times in total (Voices with Soul, 2 to Go, series one). Note that they are all groups - so pay attention Hope, Same Difference and Futureproof (aka three gay guys, a street thief and a Bulgarian orphan in a waistcoat).

See where they sing

Of the 31 contestants to see their dreams shattered in the history of the programme, eight have opened the show, and 19 have sung in the first half.

The winner should sing last within the first four shows (Leona Lewis, show one, last year; Shayne Ward, show two, 2005; Steve Brookstein, show four, 2004). So far, so good for the singing call girls, Hope.

Types who will never attract enough of the vote to win

Two of the three series have uncovered a large diva destined to play a rotund hoochie-type in Chicago. Their role is to give depressed lonely housewives hope, and then come fourth (Brenda, series two; Rowetta, series one). One word - Beverly.

Expect a 'character' to divide opinion violently: Chico (series two), The MacDonald Brothers (last year). This year - Rhydian (can sing, but hard to like).

Simon is by far the most successful judge, his act winning two of the three shows so far (Steve, series 1; Leona, series 3). Increasingly spiteful and manipulative Sharon Osbourne hasn't won any (not good news for Emily and Alisha), and Louis has won one.

The last time a young girl had her life ruined in public, an OAP was next off. With Kimberley gone, it could spell curtains for Niki (the my-dad-died woman); Beverly (the pretend Gloria Gaynor) or Daniel (designer stubble and child).