Strictly Come Dancing / The Betfair Contrarian / 27 October 2009 / Leave a comment

With Ricky Whittle [2.06] favourite to win the seventh series of Strictly Come Dancing, you'd be forgiven for thinking the other contestants are wasting their time learning the steps, says the Betfair Contrarian. Below, he tells us why the young upstart won't break the dominance of BBC stars and cricketers.

"There's no excitement in watching someone who is good from the start continue to do well. The public would much rather reward a celebrity who shows promise but has to work hard and improve... "

The strongest starter has never won

Ricky Whittle burst out of the blocks with an opening scored of 65 (each couple did two dances on their first show), which was five better than closest rival Ali Bastian and nine more than third-best Chris Hollins [19.0]. However, the early pacesetters in the previous six series never went on to win: Lesley Garrett (third), Denise Lewis (second), Zoe Ball (third), Emma Bunton (third), Kelly Brook and Penny Lancaster (withdrawal & sixth), and Cherie Lunghi (ninth somehow bowing out before John Sergeant).

A talented improver is always a better bet

The most plausible reason for the fall of the early impressers is that there is little excitement in watching someone who is good from the start continue to do well. The public would much rather reward a celebrity who shows promise but has to work hard and improve to emerge as a legitimate contender. For example, eventual winner Tom Chambers always looked good in the last series but was outscored by rival Austin Healey in four of his first five shows, while Rachel Stevens didn't top score until week nine then went on to finish second. This year's creepers could be Zoe Lucker [17.0] and Ricky Groves [19.0].

A debuting professional dancer has yet to triumph

Obviously the first series was an exception, when all the pros were new to us and Brendan Cole won. However, there is a case for arguing that greater recognisability was a factor in his triumph even then as he was a gossip column regular thanks to rumours of an affair with partner Natasha Kaplinsky. Since then, every single professional winner (Darren Bennett, Lilia Kopylova, Karen Hardy, Matthew Cutler and Camilla Dallerup) has appeared in at least one previous series. In contrast, Ricky's partner is debutee Natalie Lowe.

Ricky is too young...

While four of the ladies selected for this year's show are still in their 20s, 27-year-old Ricky is comfortably the youngest man in the line-up. Thats not necessarily a good thing - the youngest ever winner was Alesha Dixon, who was a week shy of 29 when series five got underway, while all three male winners were in their 30s (35, 37 and 31) at the beginning of their campaign. Instead, Ricky may have to settle for second-place like fellow soap studs Christopher Parker (20, series one) and Matt di Angelo (20, series five).
...and he's not mainstream enough

While the Contrarian was a huge fan of the Sky One football serial Dream Team and wouldnt turn his nose up at Hollyoaks if nothing else of note was on, neither show is regular viewing for the average Strictly Come Dancing viewer, so Whittle won't be familiar to many in the audience. The three TV personalities to have triumphed had all enjoyed past exposure on the BBC: Natasha Kaplinsky (BBC Breakfast newsreader), Jill Halfpenny (Eastenders) and Tom Chambers (Holby City).

There's a cricketer in the house

Two former England cricketers have appeared on Strictly Come Dancing before and both won: Darren Gough in series three and Mark Ramprakash in series four. As luck would have it, a third is involved this year Phil Tufnell [15]. He's arguably more popular and well known than the previous two champs and has reality TV form having won the second series of I'm a Celebrity in 2003.

Tags: Ali Bastian, Ricky Whittle, Specials betting, Strictly Come Dancing Betting Odds, Strictly Come Dancing Betting tips, The Betfair Contrarian, Zoe Lucker