Strictly Come Dancing / Alan Dudman / 19 December 2008 / Leave a Comment

Alan Dudman looks at the betting ahead of Saturday's Strictly Come Dancing grand final where Tom, Rachel and Lisa will chase the 2008 crown.

A quite farcical semi-final show last weekend means that we still have all three couples fighting for the ultimate prize in TV ballroom dancing.....that is to be crowned Strictly Come Dancing champion for 2008.

(Post any other suggestions please for further TV ballroom dancing prizes).

If you thought the semi-finals were tense, be set for a rollercoaster ride in Saturday night's final (to be screened live on BBC at 6:40pm). With media coverage into overdrive this week, I cannot wait!

Rumours are the Robbie Williams is keen to get involved in next year's series - I suppose that's one way of losing weight.

Firstly, we need to clear up the fiasco from seven days ago. The system to work out the scores is obviously a complete nonsense. How anyone failed to envisage last Saturday's problem is beyond me.

I still have no idea how it worked or works, although by my calculations from adding the audience vote, combined with the judges scores, divided by Claudia Winkleman's shoe size and the number of spanners in a toolbox, meant that I had Rachel down for 13,569 points.

Perhaps that system needs to be rectified.

Anyway, if you voted you can claim a refund, and as it was impossible for the lowest placed couple from last weekend to avoid the dance-off, all three went through to the final. AND all votes cast will be carried forward to this weekend's final.

Are you still with me?

Just before we look at all the contestants and their chances of glory, let me quickly outline the scoring and voting system for the final.

As mentioned all votes are carried over from last weekend. The Beeb have been working extremely hard in trying to find the fairest outcome and deemed the following to be the best option:

The combined scores will be announced on the leaderboard at the top of the first show, the audience then vote on performances. After that, the results are added to the leaderboard and the couple with the lowest score leave the competition.

The second show will see the two remaining couples start from scratch and go head-to-head with a public vote to decide the SCD Champion.

Simple!

And now for an interlude, perhaps David Soul's 'Silver Lady'?

"Tired of drifting, searching, shifting from town to town. Everytime I slip and slide a bit further down.

"I can't take it if you don't want me back, after everything we've been through.....but honey you're my last hope, and what else can I do?.

"Come on Silver Lady take my world, I won't run out on you again believe me, I seen the light, it's just one more fight, without you."

Sorry my brain has been frazzled with all that talk of rules and regulations... let's get down to the nitty gritty and assess our contestants.

Rachel Stevens and Vincent:

Rachel was installed as favourite with the bookies this week at 6/4, even though Tom is the Betfair fav at [1.99].

Rumours in the press over the past few days have suggested the little minx took a bad fall in training whilst attempting a lift, thus casting doubts over her participation.

Thankfully, those fears have been allayed as an SCD spokesperson confirmed she has not had a tumble, and she takes her place in the final.

Available to back at [2.70], I think she represents the best value for glitterball glory. Having advised in last week's column to take the [3.00] on her, I think you are holding a pretty strong hand.

I have to say I didn't like her music (in a club of many), but I think she has been sensational this series. Once she learned how to do sexy, sensual and raunchy, the marks began to go off the radar.

Her tango last week was so hot, there were scorch marks all over my screen. Her technical brilliance has never been in doubt, but the caressing and sensuality in the tango and American smooth last weekend was amazing.

Her total of 75 was matched by Lisa last week, but I think the pocket rocket just holds the upper hand.

Her two dances this week are the rumba and the foxtrot. Firstly the rumba is sexiest of all dances, and her 39 points first time round on this means that anything below that mark will be a disappointment.

She'll nail the sexy part and the singer has already said that she absolutely loves the dance.

If you think her rumba is good, check out the foxtrot. She breezed this a few weeks ago with a clear 40 points! She really is looking good. Mind you she has trained for 304 hours!

Tom Chambers and Camilla:

I wasn't happy with Tom last week (nor were many). His dancing was quite sloppy and a points tally of 67 leaves him with a bit of ground to make up on the ladies.

He was lazy in his jive and his tango was a bit loose. If you are loose at this stage you have to tell yourself it just cannot happen at this crucial period.

I tipped Tom in opposition to Austin in many articles. And having advised a back of him around the [3.50] mark many weeks ago, I would lay all that off and go in again with a lay.

He is currently [1.99] favourite for the crown. However, with last week's dancing and a possible backlash after the voting fiasco, I am about to jump ship on the Holby man.

Tom's two dances are the Salsa and the foxtrot. The former is not technical and more of a party dance. There will be lots of hip wriggling but I am not so sure it's his best dance, nor a favourite of the judges (in particular Craig).

His ballroom foxtrot, however, is. It really was his breakthrough moment in the competition where everything clicked. Everything needs to be here and more in the final this week for him to beat the others.

Lisa Snowdon and Brendan:

Lisa really is the dark horse of the competition and has fought like a caged tiger to get here. Her price of [7.20] is way too big and I would not put off anyone having a saver on her.

If you are keen on the two ladies (now there's a phrase), it may be worth taking a look at the 'Male and Female' market, where the former trades at [1.92] and the latter [1.97].

I think this market is wrong, you are getting two chances for a woman to win at virtually the same price. So either lay the male, or back a female winner.

Snowdon isn't a particularly engaging character, but she has come a long way. Mind you, I have enjoyed watching her training video this week...she is smoking hot! Perhaps it is the short skirt?

Her two dances last week were top-notch, and her 40 point quickstep left me drooling.

She has the foxtrot as one of her final dances, and has promised a Nat King Cole Christmassy feel. As long as it isn't Andy Cole, she'll be ok!

Her cha cha cha could be interesting as she was scintillating in the Latin dance recently. If she can just tweak her footwork which sometimes fails her on key moments, she should be a bit closer to Rachel.

So there we have it. Months (well two-and-a-half) of hard work are about to come to end. As are my cheap gags sadly. Enjoy the final on Saturday night and look out for the Xmas special on er Xmas day. Alesha Dixon, Jill Halfpenny, Darren Gough and Mark Ramprakash will be gracing our screens....all fine cricketers.

Happy Christmas!

Recommendations:
Back Rachel in winner market @ [2.72]
Back Female in 'Male and Female market @ [1.92]
Lay Tom @ [1.99] in winner market.

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