Strictly Come Dancing Betting Week Ten: Can Ali put a knockout blow on Ricky?

Strictly Come Dancing / Alan Dudman / 20 November 2009 / Leave a Comment

Can Ali outscore Ricky this week?

"I see this Saturday as a straight shoot-out between Ali and Ricky W. The former dances the foxtrot, and already is looking great in training. Her rigidity might be alright in this as her posture and lines are rarely wrong. It promises to be a great dance, but her 32 point quickstep earlier in the series would slightly temper a big stakes bet."

Al Dudman can't see past the two market leaders as injury and poor form hit the chasing pack

Jade injured, Laila injured, Brucie ill and Tufnell out - it was anything but dull in Strictly-land last week. The top of the market remains unchanged with Ricky Whittle trading at [1.85] ahead of Ali Bastian [3.35]. Behind those two - it's a bit of a minefield - and it seems the minefield is not hiding the winner what with all the recent bad luck among the chasing pack.

Firstly a news update, it's touch and go regarding Jade Johnson's participation for this weekend. Her knee popped out in the dress run, some reports have suggested she will dance, some have suggested she won't - I'll be waiting for the official line from the BBC, but her claims to win it (and at one stage she looked a lively outsider) look rather slim at this stage, and she's gone out to [23.00]. However, one could make a case that if Jade is fit enough to dance, then that price is way too large, and a sympathy vote is sometimes worth it's weight in gold.

I cried for the beautiful Laila seven days ago. Her sprained ankle produced an aborted rumba, as well as tears, and her mark of 22 is irrelevant considering the injury. She reportedly is dancing this weekend, although she barely trained up until Thursday evening which could be a real problem. Again, wait until she is actually there on the show - but any dabbling with her in the markets comes with a warning considering the fitness.

The latest round of dances proved somewhat disappointing. Old problems have still not been ironed out. Scores of 35, 35, 34, 30, 29 and 22 back that up. Ricky is superb but continues to make the odd mistake. Ali is too rigid and tight and must loosen up in the Latin to usurp Whittle. Natalie is a safe pair of hands with anything classical, but she won't win it. Whilst Ricky Groves and Chris Hollins are hanging in there.

Dances are now key for each of the celebrities , as I think now we have a good handle on who can do what, and who can't.

Ricky Groves is short on of most of Saturday's markets. Bottom two at [1.25], lowest score
at [1.50] and week 10 elimination at [1.69]. The most interesting is the lowest score angle - but only if Laila isn't fully fit. Groves tackles the tango, and I think a score of about 24-25 is all we can hope for. His best efforts have been in the ballroom (he averages about 28/29). His Latin efforts thus far with the rumba and salsa have both been modest.

I see this Saturday as a straight shoot-out between Ali and Ricky W. The former dances the foxtrot, and already is looking great in training. Her rigidity might be alright in this as her posture and lines are rarely wrong. It promises to be a great dance, but her 32 point quickstep earlier in the series would slightly temper a big stakes bet.

Whittle has the foxtrot/American smooth. This could be dangerous! Steps and heels are perfect, but we need an error-free round. I still think his ballroom is better than all the quick stuff and he's got to get back above the 35 mark once again. Ali is perhaps the better value as the week's top scorer at [3.25].

Natalie goes with the samba this Saturday, I'm not so sure that's ideal for her. It's technical and very quick, and quick she ain't, but she's safe for now.

Week 10 suggested bets:

Lowest total score 25-27, back @ [1.70]
Bottom two combo, back Ricky G/Chris Hollins [4.00]
Back Ali Bastian week 10 top score @ [3.25]