Strictly Come Dancing / Alan Dudman / 13 November 2009 / Leave a comment

This cat won't be getting the cream says Al Dudman in his weekly look at the Strictly Come Dancing odds

"Phil Tufnell's two best scores of 30 have both been in the tango, elsewhere his cha cha cha, quickstep, waltz and samba give him an average of 24. He hasn't got his favourite dance, and looks terrific value at [16.0] in the 'week 9 lowest score market'."

What a beautiful weekend from Blackpool last Saturday. The romance of the tower gave us Ali Bastian's perfect Viennese waltz. She got the first 40 of the series. Ricky Whittle oozed sexual tension (according to Bruno) with his tango, and Craig Kelly was booted out...and about time too. Hooray.

Bastian's ballroom was enchanting last weekend, she really is suited to the grace and elegance of the slower stuff. The chemistry is there with Brian Fortuna, and the way they glided together across the floor was a sharp reminder to Whittle that he will face serious competition for the winner's trophy.

Bastian can still be backed at [4.80], with Whittle not moving at [1.85]. I am still with Whittle, and realistically only Jade Johnson can be viewed as a potential finalist, her price at [15.0] to win it is a touch on the large side.

Talking of large sides, didn't Natalie do well last weekend? She is eeking out slight improvement week on week. Her highest score of the series was achieved with her 31 point quickstep. She really did enjoy that dance, and I haven't seen her move that swiftly since someone mentioned to her that the buffet was running an 'all you can eat' offer for a fiver. Cassidy can't win it, but she is good fun and gives every dance 100 per cent. Look to lay her if she is short enough in any of the exit markets and combo ones, as the public should be able to keep her in until maybe week 11.

On to Saturday's show, and Ricky Groves looks in trouble. His salsa wasn't brilliant seven days ago, and a score of 25 (for the salsa) is nowhere near good enough at this stage. He'll be dancing the Viennese waltz come the weekend and is the favourite to get eliminated at a price of [2.58].

But something is nagging at me not to be a backer. His waltz from week one got him 21 points but he has vastly improved since then. His last two dances have been shockers, but they've been the rumba and the salsa and he isn't that great with the Latin. I prefer his ballroom, his two highest scores have been in the foxtrot (28) and the American smooth (29). The public could vote him out anyway, but I think he can improve and get around 29-30 this Saturday which may save him in the lowest score market - in which he can be backed at [2.0].

My angle of attack this week is the hopeful improvement from Groves giving us some ammo to get at Phil Tufnell. I have avoided 'The Cat' for most of the series as I am not a huge fan of the spinner, but it seems the public are. And my god they see enough of him on the BBC. He'll be saved by the voters as they love a cheeky chappy, but he is looking vulnerable regarding a points tally.

His two best scores of 30 have both been in the tango, elsewhere his cha cha cha, quickstep, waltz and samba give him an average of 24. He hasn't got his favourite dance, and looks terrific value at [6.00] in the 'week 9 lowest score market'.

Week 9 recommendations:
Back Phil Tufnell as week 9 lowest scorer @ [6.00]
Lay Natalie in bottom two market @ [2.70]
Back Ricky G/Laila @ [11.00] and Ricky G/Jade [18.00] in bottom two combo.

Tags: Ali Bastian, Jade Johnson, Natalie Cassidy, Phil Tufnell, Ricky Groves, Strictly Come Dancing