Strictly Come Dancing Betting: Lay lovely Lisa

Strictly Come Dancing / Jack Houghton / 06 December 2008 / Leave a Comment

With Alan Dudman on the other side of the pond (probably watching their version of SCD), Jack Houghton steps into the hotseat to talk us through this week's action as Strictly Come Dancing approaches its finale...

Dudders is away. In America. Presumably a guest of Come Dancing USA; or Dancing With The Stars I think it's called. Although I think they finished their show last week, so perhaps not.

Anyway, I've been asked to step in while he's away. Steady the ship. Get you all back on track and all that. Problem is, I've been reading some of Dudders' contributions, and he seems to know quite a bit about this dancing game. To anyone who has met him, that'll come as no surprise. He's got the look of a man who likes to dress up in chiffon and sequins and be flung about his lounge by a similarly bespangled man called Brian.

I don't. Chiffon brings me out in a rash. So this substitute offering is going to be long on opinion and short on expertise. But I've never let lack of knowledge get in the way of holding court; and the next few minutes aren't going to be any different.

Lisa Snowden, at [1.96], is too short in this week's elimination market. Although she has the lowest average series score of the remaining dancers, she's been a late developer. In fact, looking at the average scores across the last six dances, Lisa is the second-best of those left; and has been top of the leaderboard twice in four shows.

This week, Lisa's weakness will likely be the jive - not a dance that typically suits tall-types - but the experts on It Takes Two seem happy enough with her progress and she is almost certain to nail her second dance: the waltz. She topped the leaderboard in week eight with her Viennese waltz - scoring 36 - and, minus the lederhosen, the straight waltz is virtually the same dance.

Next favourite to go is Rachel. The girls have faced a dance-off twice each - something neither of the remaining men have yet to experience. But of the girls, who is favourite with the viewers? Well, on the two occasions Lisa has been in the dance-off, she has been in the bottom three scorers with the judges. Rachel, on the other hand, faced the dance-off in week eight; having achieved the clear second-best judge score. Add to this the fact that Lisa outscored Rachel by five points overall last week, and you have to ask: should it really be Lisa who is favourite to go?

I think there's a chance Lisa will avoid the dance-off altogether and, even if she faces Rachel to fight for survival, is it any more than a coin toss as to which one would be saved? On this basis I recommend a 2pts lay of Lisa at [1.96] in the 12th Elimination market.

The outright market is dominated by the two men - with Austin the rightful favourite. Tom's never really done it for me and I think Austin should be a shorter price than he is. On hours-danced-in-training he constantly tops the contender lists and looks set for strong performances in the American Smooth and Salsa. At [2.4] I recommend a 1pt bet on him to take the overall prize.

Lisa looks a big price at [14.0] to win the show. Although I think it unlikely she will beat Austin in a popular vote, I can see her getting down to the last two. If she does, that price will shorten, and back-to-layers might want to risk her as a trading proposition. Otherwise there's the Top Female market, where she's currently a very generous [2.5].

If all this proves utter nonsense then hang fire... Dudders should be back next week.

Recommendations:

2pts lay of Lisa Snowden in 12th Elimination market.
1pt back of Austin Healey in Winner market.