Strictly Come Dancing / Alan Dudman / 02 October 2009 / Leave a comment

With the Paso Doble and Quickstep awaiting the class of 2009 this week, Alan Dudman updates us on the winner market and tells us who is likely to bite the dust this week and be confined to the dustbins of Strictly Come Dancing history.

"The Hollyoaks star is clearly the best dancer they have had for some time on the show, his Ballroom and Latin from week two were pretty stunning bar one slip, and rather ominously for the rest of the field, he's only going to get better."

Can Ricky Whittle get any shorter? Yes I say, and goodness knows what sort of price the human torso is going to be come week nine or ten. Whittle is getting hotter and hotter, and whilst trading as SCD fave at [2.58], I anticipate a price nearer evens come Saturday evening.

The Hollyoaks star is clearly the best dancer they have had for some time on the show, his Ballroom and Latin from week two were pretty stunning bar one slip, and rather ominously for the rest of the field, he's only going to get better.

What else did we learn from the second batch of 'dancers'? Well, Zoe Lucker is a dark horse - I was impressed. She's been cut to [16.00] to win it. Craig Kelly was rubbish (he won't win it), and Jo Wood perhaps wasn't as garbage as I was hoping. Laila was looking really good until the Latin (but she always looks good), whilst Phil Tufnell is this year's cheeky chappy. Note, please sack me if I ever use the 'cheeky chappy' and Phil Tufnell line anymore for this season.

No show this Friday, as it's a straight shoot-out come Saturday night on BBC1. 13 celebrities and Natalie Cassidy now go head to head for the first time in the series, with the Paso Doble and Quickstep waiting in store for them.

The opening rounds have been about grace, poise, elegance and rigor mortis (Joe Calazaghe). It's been slow and subtle (or just slow for big Joe), and now it's going to be quick and animated. We want some passion this weekend. Let's hope we get some.

The Paso Doble is the Spanish bullfighter's dance, it's the dance before the kill in Spain, and a mighty tough one to nail. The Quickstep does exactly what it says on the tin. It's gotta be quick, dynamic, fast with lots of runs, hops and one-steps. The old dance used to be a combination of the Charleston, the Shag and the Peabody. I personally adore one of those dances....the Peabody.

One punting tactic this weekend is cross out who will struggle with the quick and
more animated dances. Out go the old, out go the planks (planks in the sense of wooden and non movable). On ya go oldies Wood and Bellingham. Out ya go planks Calzaghe, Wilding and Kelly. None of these have got a chance. The ones that will suit should be Whittle, Jade Johnson and Chris Hollins.

The stand out bet this weekend is obviously Ricky Whittle in the 'highest scorer market'. The actor trades at [1.72], which is by no means the worst odds-on shot in the world. His nearest rival is Ali Bastian at [3.75], but I think she'll be suited by the more classical dances. Whittle recorded the first 9 on last weekend's programme. I predict a score in the region of 68 to 70 for him, and quite possibly honing in on the first 10 of the series....that trades at around [4.00] incidentally. and could be worth a couple of quid.

As a back-to-lay, Jade Johnson is interesting at [9.00] for the top score. She's got some good chemistry going on with her partner. She is definitely sexy, funky and got legs to die for, and could be suited by a bit more umph in the dances. A get out of about [5.00] would be the call here.

With rigor mortis setting well and truly in, Joe Calzaghe is in big trouble. He's short in the 3rd elimination betting, but may be saved by the phone vote. Therefore the focus should be on getting him in the 'lowest score' one. His Tango two weeks ago was awful, his rumba was even worse. He couldn't do the slow so he certainly won't be doing anything quick. He is a good price in the lowest score market at [2.80].

The champ becomes the chump.

Recommended bets for Saturday:

Back Ricky Whittle highest score [1.72]
Back Joe Calzaghe lowest score [2.80]
Back-to-lay Jade Johnson highest score [9.00]

Tags: Jade Johnson, Joe Calzaghe, Ricky Whittle, Strictly Come Dancing betting, Strictly Come Dancing preview, Strictly Odds