Strictly Come Dancing Betting: Getting lucky?

Strictly Come Dancing / Alan Dudman / 09 October 2009 / Leave a Comment

"Zoe Lucker's dancing is organised, and disciplined, and she keeps nailing the lines throughout each dance. She trades at [16.00] to win it, and whilst that is unlikely - she represents a good trade to get out at about the [9.00] mark as she will last well into the series."

Alan Dudman is still getting over the trauma of last weekend but that doesn't mean our man has taken his eye off the ball - in fact, he's whittled it down to a trio of contenders. So where should we put our money in week four?

I have just about recovered from the sight of seeing the 'multi-talented' Natalie Cassidy dragged around the dancefloor by the diminutive Vincent. It wasn't pretty and it wasn't clever, although it did remind me of the tale of Moby Dick. Not a good way to spend your Saturday evening...

Week three caused no upsets whatsoever. Wardrobe Rav Wilding was a welcome exit from the competition, whilst improvers were Jo Wood and Joe Calzaghe (although improving from zero is not hard). The boxer's Paso was a huge step up on the worst tango ever last week, but he still collected the lowest score of 19. The move to bring out the cape and the belt were as bad as his tattoos. He still can't dance for toffee.

Ricky Whittle's paso oozed raunchiness. He was a proper bullfighter, and had he not made one slip up at the end (again), he is just about to peak and hit a perfect 10 - possibly within the next fortnight. He amazingly still trades at [2.50] to win the comp. I make him an odds-on shot and would advise backing him again until he trades around [1.90].

One thing is clear before we move on to this week's show. There are realistically only three winners, the rest are utter gubbins and have no chance. Only Ricky W, Ali, Laila or possibly Zoe can win it.

Right, on to Saturday's show. The remaining 13 couples tackle the foxtrot and the salsa - giving us a nice mix of the Latin and the ballroom. The foxtrot will give us the slow elegance, the salsa incorporates lots of different styles but is predominantly quick-quick. If Ali Bastian is dancing the foxtrot, she is of serious interest as a top scorer alongside Ricky Whit.

I have been fairly impressed with Zoe Lucker too. Her dancing is organised, and disciplined, and she keeps nailing the lines throughout each dance. She trades at [16.00] to win it, and whilst that is unlikely - I think she represents a good trade to get out at about the [9.00] mark as she will last well into the series. She needs to let herself go a bit though (something I've been trying to work with on women for ages).

Week four has given us our improvers, this month has also given us our regressor - and step forward Craig Kelly.

Cries of who? are now ringing out around Betfairland......

He's in Coronation Street, and his 21 point quick-step last week was possibly one of the dullest
dances I have ever seen. Kelly is a dullard seriously lacking in any personality. He is ok, a nice guy, but no pizazz or sexiness like the beautiful Laila.

In fact, Craig's Charleston last Saturday (more Charlton) was a disaster, full of mistakes and poorly timed footwork. He'll really struggle with either of the two nominated dances and he must be got at this weekend. He can be backed at [4.40] in the 4th Elimination market - and he'll have the Oxo mum Lynda Bellingham for company.

Joe Calzaghe is once again topping the lowest score market at [2.02]. He is the most wooden and might be getting 19-21 points again, but the phone vote will keep him in.

Jo Wood will no doubt be dragged around by Brendan again and may just find herself in the competition for another week.

Ante-post recommendations:

Back Ricky Whittle to win @ [2.50] (once again)
Back-to-lay Zoe Lucker in win market @ [16.00]

Week 4 recommendations:

Back Craig Kelly in 4th Elimination market @ [4.40]
Back Joe Calzaghe lowest score @ [2.02]
Back Lynda Bellingham in bottom two market @ [2.60]