Strictly Come Dancing / Alan Dudman / 18 September 2009 /

Alan Dudman gets over his disappointment in time to offer some pointers on Strictly punting and pick the best bets for Friday's ballrom and Saturday's Latin...

I start the first instalment of SCD's Week One preview on a low note... Laila Roulass will not be dancing until next week. A bombshell to Dudders, instead I have to make do with the 'Oxo mum'. Roulass and sequinned tight-fitting dresses were sounding good. Hmph.

The BBC have tinkered with the format once again, and for the first two weeks of the show, we have Friday and Saturday night episodes (hopefully to replace Casualty) in which only eight of the 16 couples will be dancing. Friday is ballroom night whilst Saturday will focus on the Latin dances. Then, after the waltz, the tango, the cha-cha and rumba, we will have a Saturday night elimination. Got that? Good.

I think the most important aspect of any pre-show punt is to see who suits what dance. With Friday's ballroom night, the emphasis is going to be on smoothness, grace and elegance. The waltz is the slow 123 123, and it's all about timing and flow. We'll see a lot of thigh and hip in the tango, that's the lead-and-follow one with lots of chest-to-chest. (Repeat - gutted Roullas not involved).

Saturday's Latin meanwhile has the quick and slow steps of the cha-cha, and the hip-swaying and arm-waving rumba. This will be the quicker of the two, and the less athletic contestants will need a decent score from the previous night. Note Bellingham.

Personality plays a part too. Human shopping trolley John Sargeant lasted nine weeks too long in 2008 - but the public loved him. He traded at silly prices to go, and kept getting voted in. Check and gauge public opinion, forums and tabloid newspapers!! Great coverage in all of them.

Finally, you gotta dance. Alesha was brilliant in 2007, Chambers was highly competent last year. Quickly identify the improvers (see Lisa Snowdon and Rachel Stevens) to the one-trick ponies (Austin Healey). I like the latter for laying purposes.

It's always very hard to gauge any kind of market for the first dances, and this will be a good time to assess and get a feel of who is a million dollars, or a million lira. The 'First Elimination' market has got Lynda Bellingham in as [3.40] favourite to get the chop (or lamb chops to go with the Oxo if you like).

She's now 60 years of age, and has been in a show called 'Loose Women' on ITV. I didn't know what this was, so was somewhat disappointed to discover it was some kind of daytime chat show. Anyway, I wouldn't be backing her in that at all. Her partner Darren Bennett has a pretty decent record in the competition, he won it with Jill Halfpenny in Series Two, and has danced in previous years with some mighty actresses such as Letitia Dean and Jessie Walllace.

Pre-series favourite Joe Calzaghe [5.60] dances with Siberian Tiger Kristina Rihanoff and it's time to find out if the Pride of Wales can dance. He has had a couple of knocks to his knee if what I read in the paper is accurate, and I will know from his very first dance if he is any good or not. I am with Ricky Whittle [6.60] to win, although he doesn't go until next week.

Take it easy, go with low stakes this week, but I would be interested in a couple of small plays at biggish prices. Martina Hingis can be backed at [7.00] to get eliminated Saturday, and I'm not sure she will have much truck with the British audience. Not convinced about her personality (if she has one) either. Her words of 'the internet has been very useful as I've looked at all the dances performed to help me' wouldn't neccessarily strike me as an obvious winner. But I do agree with Hingis - the internet is a very good research tool to review all kinds of performances.

Olympic hopeful Jade Johnson is another I don't like. She said "I am doing this because I am crazy". Anyone who says that isn't. She has the reputation for being outspoken, and she is interesting to back to get the heave-ho at around [12.5].

Week One recommendations:

Back Jade Johnson [12.50] and Martina Hingis [7.50]
in the first elimination market.

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