Strictly Come Dancing 2008: The markets were right in the first place, strictly speaking!

Strictly Come Dancing / Leighton Vaughan Williams / 23 December 2008 / Leave a comment

Professor Leighton Vaughan Williams is a master in prediction markets, so what did he make of the betting on the final night of Strictly 2008? To sum up - they got it right, before they got it wrong, before they got it right again.

The glitter ball has been awarded, the series is at an end, and die-hard fans of 'Strictly Come Dancing' have memories to cherish of perhaps the best series so far.

So how did the markets see it, and were they right?

Depends how you look at it.

As the opening credits of the final beckoned, the money started to surge towards the favourites, Tom Chambers and Camilla Dallerup. A shade of odds-against in a three-couple race during the afternoon, by curtain-up the sizzling samba dancers had shortened to [1.89] on Betfair, compared to [2.74] for Rachel Stevens and her professional partner, Vincent Simone, with Lisa Snowdon and erstwhile 'bad boy' Brendan Cole bringing up the rear at [7.4].

That was before the dancing started, but after the results of the semi-final (featuring the same three couples) had been announced. In terms of the dancing, the female celebrities out-performed the pre-show favourites in the 'Foxtrot', not least because they actually stayed steady on their feet. But so what? According to the judges' scorecards, and most fair-minded observers, such was the case in the semi-final as well, but that didn't stop the Holby City actor and the Danish dance queen from topping the viewers' poll on that occasion. This became clear when it was announced that they had picked up an aggregate of four points the previous week, which meant a maximum three points from the public.

So how did the market react? Did it learn from the actual votes cast or did the traders prefer to substitute their own judgement of who was dancing the better? I would have guessed the former, but not so. Within less than half an hour of the start of the show, the flowing Foxtrot of the second-favourites had propelled them to the head of the market, backable at no longer than [1.86]. The public's favourites were out to [3.15].

A sizzling samba, raunchy rumba and cheeky Cha Cha later, and the outcome of the competition in terms of dancing skills was marked by the judges as a close call between the female celebrities, Lisa and Rachel. The markets were starting to backtrack on the main event, however, and by the time the voting lines opened order had been re-established, with the darlings of the public vote once again in market ascendancy, albeit just.

A stiff dose of 'reality' in the shape of 'Casualty' soon sobered up those who continued to ignore the wishes of the great British public, however, as the money started to move inexorably towards the samba dancers. By 8.27pm, with Tom and Camilla backable at just [1.92], the market was suspended.

As expected, Lisa and Brendan, top of the judges' cards but unfavoured by the public, went out, leaving the contest a match-up between the public dancers and the public darlings. The newly-opened market at first priced it as a genuine contest, with Tom Chambers trading at [1.8] compared to [2.02] for the former 'S Club' singer.

Then it happened! The public's favourites quite simply out-performed and out-shone their rivals in a scintillating dazzling display of dance that would have graced Fred Astaire and Ginger Rogers.

The contest was over, though you could still back the new Fred and Ginger at [1.24].

What great value! What great entertainment! On offer from Betfair and from the BBC! On a Christmas Saturday night. Memories are made of this. Magic!