Strictly Come Dancing / Chicken Dinner / 08 September 2008 /

Muscle men will get the housewives voting while models and pint-sized ingenues will raise the temperature of the male audience. But who, asks Chicken Dinner, will win?

The Elderlies

Former Rising Damp star Don Warrington [[80.0] to win on Betfair] and political correspondent John Sergeant [90.0] can both be discounted immediately on age grounds. The BBC audience can be pretty ruthless, and so far the most successful gents over 50 have been Jimmy Tarbuck (series four) and Willie Thorne (series five), and they only lasted three shows.

The Sportsmen

With the exception of last year, when bumbling Kenny Logan and John Barnes gave dancing sportsmen a bad name, athletes, with their confidence, stamina and agility, tend to fare well. Austin Healey [9.4] appears to have the right blend of ego and burliness to emulate his old rugby cohort Matt Dawson (runner up, series two), while Mark Foster [10.5] is exactly the kind of hulking muscle man that gets BBC housewives reaching for their voting phones. Both are worth keeping an enormous eye on.

The Soap Stars

Both Strictly Come Dancing and Eastenders are massive audience magnets for the Beeb, so the dance floor is never without a familiar face from Albert Square, and this year there are three of them - Jessie Wallace [15.5], Gillian Taylforth [48.0] and Phil Daniels [26.0]. Daniels is probably a little bit too old and urchin-faced to win the show - this audience generally demands a little more sex appeal. The same goes for Taylforth, who has been teamed up with class joker Anton de Beke, presumably to become the show's all-important comedy couple who will fare well, but be cut as soon as the competition turns serious. The third, Jessie Wallace, probably has the best chance. Since her stint on Eastenders, she has starred in Rent in the West End, so presumably knows how to perform for a live audience, even if it is with a fixed maniac grin and irritating jazz hands.

The hot girls

Last year, the show featured three hot girls - winner Alesha Dixon, Kelly Brook and (for the older gent) Penny Lancaster. This year, they've upped the stakes and incorporated four - Lisa Snowdon [10.5], Rachel Stevens [6.6], Jodie Kidd [13.5] and Christine Bleakley [11.0]. All have the potential to do well. Snowdon attended Italia Conti stage school, so presumably already knows a thing or two about lolloping around on a dance floor, but at 36, she might be a little too old. Jodie Kidd is tall and leggy, so will be hoping to match Zoe Ball (third, series three) rather than Penny Lancaster (ninth, last year). Rachel Stevens is fantastically telegenic and already has a big profile having graduated from chart fodder S Club 7. And Bleakley has the same medium-sized television profile that served Jill Halfpenny (winner, series two) and Alesha Dixon (winner, last year) so well.

The generally disadvantaged

Anyone who saw Gary Rhodes [30.0] on Hell's Kitchen already knows that he has an irksome competitive streak, which should see him nail an intense American Smooth while simultaneously alienating an entire viewership - this audience tires of try-hards (Gabby Logan, eleventh, last year). Cherie Lunghi [44.0] - for those unfamiliar with Kenco coffee adverts and the 1980s Arthurian romp Excalibur - is a jobbing actress whose profile is far too miniscule for her to survive more than a couple of shows. And Heather Small [16.5] was, of course, the unlistenable foghorn voice behind such great M People hits as Moving On Up, and could be this year's Mica Paris, who trundled in second last in series four.

The ones to watch

Andrew Castle's [16.0] GMTV colleagues Kate Garraway (eighth, last year) and Fiona Phillips (ninth, series three) were both horrible ballroom dancers, and yet the legions of GMTV voters proved impossible to disappoint - he's like family to them. While Tom Chambers [5.1] is the early leader, thanks to his dramatic turn as a handsome medic in Holby City - a popular show with loyal BBC viewers. He has something of the Gethin Jones (third, last year) clean cut wholesomeness about him.

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