Strictly Come Dancing / Alan Dudman / 12 December 2008 /

Alan Dudman bids farewell to a one trick pony, looks forward to this weekend's live American Smooths and Argentine Tangos and wonders whether a contestant who is becoming sexy and raunchy could be this year's winner.

After seeing Austin Healey disappear last week I have to say I am as pleased as punch - and to coin a phrase from the great Blackadder: "If only I was as good looking as punch".

That's right, the winking rugger man failed to survive Week 12's dance-off with Lisa and left many a woman missing his impressive chest (something I have been doing since the sad exit of Christine.......am I allowed to say that?).

I hope you followed my advice on numerous occasions in my weekly column - to lay the pants off Austin as he was nothing more than a one-trick pony. It's amazing how many people have said to me (two by the way) how Healey was great but never improved.......well I said that when he was [1.80]. And everyone improved other than him.

I also hope you followed the advice in laying Mr Pecs too in the top male market at [1.91] and backing Chambers to win at [3.10]. Either way, you have a chance to green up before the weekend.

And we move on to Saturday's show for Week 13.

If you are a trader, you will have the option of trading during the whole thing this week as the entire programme is to be broadcast live. The main show will be screened on BBC One and BBC HD at 6:10pm, whilst the results will be aired live from 8.55pm.

With the good comes the bad though, and sad news to report with the fact that the cast of the West End musical 'Chicago' will be performing 'All that Jazz' on this Saturday's show. I apologise for my negativity this, but I remember sitting through the film with a date many years ago (probably my last one), and found the whole thing rather boring. The date and the film.

Chicago may not be my cup of tea, but the dancers in this series have been. It is worth mentioning that since we got rid of the likes of Rhodes, Daniels and Warrington, this competition has been the hottest since Strictly's birth five years ago.

Last week was the best-ever quarter-final, perhaps we will get the best
semi...

The structure for the last remaining contestants in Saturday's show is for everyone to perform the Argentine Tango, with their second dance to be one of their own personal choices.

Rachel and Vincent

Rachel Stevens has been the suprise package of the show. The former
'singer' has excelled every week since somehow being in the dance-off.
Few can forget the tears that evening, even fewer have forgot her string of amazing
dances over the past month - clocking personal bests on a record breaking run.

Last weekend she looked gorgeous in red, was compact and tight. She reminded me of an old flame - she too was tight and never bought me anything. Take, take,
take she was.

The key for me with Rachel is that she is actually becoming sexy and raunchy - combining the technical with the emotional. Something you patently have to do to nail some of the dances. This attitude again saw her clock the best score last
weekend with 76.

Her dance of choice this Saturday will be the American Smooth - and I predict a score of around 38 for this. She'll have nay worries.

The Argentine Tango for me could be the clincher which will book her place
in the final. There is one very important fact to know for this weekend, and that is her partner is the best at the Argentine Tango - in fact he is known as the King of this dance.

With his brilliance and Rachel's rapid progress, I am actually thinking she could win it. They'll master the tricky lifts of the dance the best and could nail a combined score of around 77 to 78.

With the pocket rocket trading at [3.00] to lift the Strictly crown, I think she looks a tremendous back-to-lay option as she most certainly will make it to the final.

If she is after a vote, I think I would give her one.

Lisa and Brendan

The model, tv presenter, radio host (is there no end to her talents?) and ex of George Clooney has surpassed all expectations in reaching the semi-final. Although erratic - she has danced when it has mattered.

Surviving her third dance-off last weekend proved that she had guts, and fair play to the leggy one after her beautiful 39 point Waltz seven days ago.

Snowdon has described Strictly as giving her a new lease of life. I know how you feel Lisa - as I have thoroughly enjoyed writing about it this series.

Her dance of choice with the Quickstep is a brave one, as her previous effort at the routine wasn't great, and earned her low marks from the judges.

Brendan is passionate, and will have the sexy factor together with Lisa. But Brendan has admitted he just isn't as good at the Argentine Tango as Vincent is.

The two have said they'll look to dance as if there is no audience there.... something that Richard and Judy on Watch will know a thing or two about.

I think she needs a career best just to make it to the final. A price of [1.59] for her in the 'Elimination market' is one to perhaps have a play on.

Tom and Camilla

The Holby man has always been my tip to lift the crown, and with a current price of [1.78] for glory, I think it may be prudent to lay most of that off before Saturday.

Tom has been ultra-smooth throughout the three-month period and rarely makes a mistake - although the idea of the cape still bothersme from November.

I always said Tom was a bit zany, and news from training this week is that he has been clicking his heels saying 'semi-finals, semi-finals, semi-finals'. Hmmmm crazy. How those winter nights must fly by.

Chambers wowed the judges last weekend with his Foxtrot. His Rumba wasn't quite up to standard, but two similar dances may be enough to
book his place in the grand final.

As the last man left in the show, he may well also feel pressure as the favourite, and has opted for the fast jive for Saturday.

Recommendations:

Back Lisa for Elimination @ [1.59]
Back Rachel in winners market @ [3.00] with a view to laying off the stake in the final.

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